Friday, October 27, 2006

Divisional Battles (and Revenge Games too)


Miami 5-2 @ #23 Georgia Tech 5-2 (-5, 37) 3:30 ABC
This game is for the Coastal Division as both teams have one loss.
Miami Notes:
Common Opp: None
ATS: 1-4-1 Away: 1-1 (0-2ATS) O/U:0-6-0
Larry Coker - ATS: 27-33 Away Dog: 5-0 (thru 2005)
Georgia Tech Notes:
Common Opp: None
ATS: 3-3-0 Home: 4-1 (1-2 ATS) O/U: 3-3-0
Chan Gailey - ATS: 23-24-2 ATS Home Fav: 9-9 (thru 2005)

Keys for Miami:
1. Establish a Ground Game
Unless Miami did not watch last week's tape, then they will know how well Clemson rushed the ball against a fast, but small GT defense. The Hurricanes have capable backs, but the 0-line has not played very well this season. I think the GT defense can be worn down over four quarters if you stick with the run.
2. Down for the Count?
There is more than Hurricane players swirling around Miami these days. With the Peach Brawl last year, the Louisville stomp, and the FIU melee this Miami team has been through a lot and the coach who has been through it with them may not be around much longer. Still, one of Miami's goals is to get to the ACC Championship, is still very well in sight. The question is does the desire still exist if Miami gets down 10-14 points in this game.
3. Kyle Wright > Reggie Ball
Both of these QBs have been much criticized for the play as starters; some is deserved some is not. Whichever QB plays better gives their team a much better chance to win since the fortunes of their teams depend heavily upon their play according to the statistics. However, the play of these two is determined very much so by the protection they receive.
Keys for Georgia Tech
1. Line of Scrimmage
Tech was absolutely dominated at the LOS last Saturday and must do a better job this week to win.
2. Calvinism
The offensive coaching must believe in this guy. They must believe he can beat double coverage; they must believe that if they just get the ball in his hands good things will happen. Calvin Johnson needs at least five catches and/or a TD for the Jackets to pull of the win.
3. Punch in the Mouth
Miami has been blasted by the media for the poor play and sportsmanship ever since the end of last season. Yet, they still have the talent to play with everyone in the ACC. Miami still thinks they are the bully on the ACC block, but a lot of teams do not fear them anymore. Georgia Tech wants to show last year's upset was not a fluke. I think if Georgia Tech can get up two scores in this game with their defense, they can start making reservations for Jacksonville.
Prediction: Georgia Tech 17 Miami 13 (Miami Covers, Under)



Georgia 6-2 vs #9 Florida 6-1 (-13, 41) Jacksonville, Fl 3:30 ABC
The Game Formerly Known as the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party
Georgia Notes:
Common Opp: vTenn 33-51
ATS: 2-5-0 O/U: 3-4-0
Mark Richt- ATS: 34-28 (thru 2005)
Florida Notes:
Common Opp: @Tenn 21-20
ATS: 3-4-0 O/U:2-5-0
Urban Meyer- ATS: 6-6 ATS (thru 2005)
Florida has won 14 of the last 16 meetings

Keys for Georgia:
1. Find a Leak in the Florida Line
Auburn wrote the book on how to beat Florida in the second half a few weeks ago by getting pressure on Leak and causing turnovers. Georgia is very capable of getting pressure with the bookends of Charles Johnson and Quentin Moses.
2. Specialize
The return game is one area where Georgia has a decided advantage. Mikey Henderson must get loose for a big punt return. If I am Florida, I don't even kick the ball to him.
3. Take Your Lumps
Kregg Lumpkin is a solid back who can carry the ball 20-25 times a game. But it seems Georgia has wanted to try and move the ball through the air more even with an unproven QB and questionable WR. If Lumpkin can move the ball on the ground, this will set up the passing game and take pressure of Stafford.

Keys for Florida:
1. Gator Bait
Florida's defense is licking their chops at playing a true freshman at the WLOCP. The Gators need to bring pressure and see how Stafford reacts. Florida's DBs are good enough to play man coverage on UGA's WR.
2. Where Theres a Wynn Theres a Win
The team that rushes for more in this game usually wins and unless Tebow sees a lot of action, DeShawn Wynn will be the main horse for the Gators. Wynn looked pretty good against Auburn in the first half, but never got going in the second half. It is important that Florida establishes the run before going long.
3. Percy Have Mercy
Percy Harvin is an electriflying player who can take the ball from a handoff, pass, or a reverse. He is the best athlete on the field and is a threat to take it all the way every time he touches the ball.
Prediction: Florida 28 Georgia 10 (Florida Covers, Under)


#10 Tennessee 6-1 @ South Carolina 5-2 (+3, 44) 7:45 ESPN
Even if this game does not live up to the hype, here is a Battle of the Babes from the two schools.
Tennessee Notes:
Common Opp: @UGA 51-33
ATS: 5-2-0 Away: 2-0 (2-0ATS) O/U:3-3-1
Phil Fulmer - ATS: 79-82-1 Away Fav: 24-24 (thru 2005)
South Carolina Notes:
Common Opp: vUGA 0-18
ATS: 5-1-0 Home:2-2 (2-1ATS) O/U 3-3-0
Steve Spurrier - ATS: 6-5-1 Home Dog: 1-2 (thru 2005)

Keys for Tennessee:
1. Newton Discovery
Ever since Syvelle Newton took over the QB duties in Colombia this South Carolina offense has been a different unit. Spurrier is a master at taking advantage of the mismatch and the Vols will need to account for him running or passing on every down.
2. Volunteer for Blocking
Against Florida, the Vols could not run the ball allowing the Gators to sell out on defending the pass. The Vols must block better than they did in that game.
3. Balancing Act
Erik Ainge has played much better this season and he has some really good receivers to throw to. Still, the Vols must have a running game as they will not be able to pass all game against the Gamecocks.

Keys for South Carolina:
1. Stretch the Field
With Newton's ability to run and a somewhat anemic rushing attack, South Carolina needs to stretch the field early to keep the Vols from keying on Newton and Rice.
2. Rice
Spurrier will find ways to get the ball in the hands of his best player. Last week, it was from the running back spot with seven rushes and a TD. Tennessee will likely double cover Rice for much of the game, but that is not an excuse for not getting him the ball.
3. Last Year Was Last Year
South Carolina beat Tennessee for the first time in 12 years last year. ESPN Gameday will be in Colombia for a game between old rivals Spurrier and Fulmer. Williams-Brice Stadium will be rocking, but South Carolina needs to realize this is not the Tennessee of last year.
Prediction: Tennessee 28 South Carolina 27 (S. Carolina Covers, Over)

Other ATS Games: (changed these from the first posting)
Buffalo (+34) @ Boston College
Matt Ryan will likely not play in this game (if Tom O'Brien is smart)
Maryland (+4) vs Florida State
Things have run amuck in Tallahassee while it looks like the Terps are pulling it together
Northern Illinois (+16) @ Iowa
The Hawkeyes will be without Drew Tate and the QB in his place has thrown 1TD and 4INT
Nebraska (-5.5) @ Oklahoma St
Cornhuskers should be pretty angry after letting one slip away last weekend vs Texas
Other ACC & SEC Games:
Vandebilt Over Duke
Maryland Over Florida State
Wake Forest Over North Carolina
Virginia Over NC State
Boston College Over Buffalo
Alabama Over Fla Intl
Arkansas Over La-Monroe
Auburn Over Ole Miss
Kentucky Over Miss St

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