Thursday, October 12, 2006

What Was Going to Be an SEC Championship Preview


#3 Florida @ #11 Auburn (-1.5, 38) 7:45 ESPN
OffAvgYardsPassRush
FLA29413.3257.8155.5
AUB25.5331.3177.3154
DefAvgYardsPassRush
FLA9.5259.7202.856.8
AUB11.3276.5156.5120

Recent Meetings
DateAway/HomeLineO/U
10/19/2002AUB 23 - FLA 30AUB 8.5O 50
10/13/2001FLA 20 - AUB 23AUB 26.5U 50.5
12/2/2000AUB 6 - FLA 28FLA -10U 52.5
10/14/2000AUB 7 - FLA 38FLA -8.5U 54
10/16/1999FLA 32 - AUB 14FLA -16O 45
Datevs.ScoreLineO/U
10/7/2006LSUW 23-10W -1U 43
9/30/2006ALABW 28-13L -16.5O 40.5
9/23/2006KENTYW 26-7L -26.5U 54
9/16/2006@ TENNW 21-20L -4.5U 46.5
9/9/2006CENFLW 42-0W -22U 50

Datevs.ScoreLineO/U
10/7/2006ARKL 10-27L -13.5U 43.5
9/28/2006@ SOCARW 24-17L -13O 37
9/23/2006BUFFW 38-7L -41.5U 48.5
9/16/2006LSUW 7-3W -3.5U 41.5
9/9/2006@ MISSTW 34-0W -21.5U 38

Team Updates:
Florida is 2 for 2 in its four game gauntlet through the SEC West after dispatching LSU easier than expected. Urban Meyer is brilliantly using both Chris Leak and Tim Tebow to keep teams off balance defensively. The Gators are still searching for a run game to complement Leak's passing and a stout defense. Florida should be used to a hostile environment after playing Knoxville a few weeks ago.

Auburn is probably still scratching their heads after Arkansas came into the Plains and ran all over the Tigers defense. Also, the Auburn offense is not the same as it was last year, especially Kenny Irons who has been bottled up much of the season. This does not look like a break out game for Tubberville's crew against a tough Florida D.

All signs point to a Gator victory as the only advantage Auburn has is the homefield. The Tigers will need some turnovers to get their offense off and running as I don't think Brandon Cox and Co. can make three or four full drives against Florida. These two teams may very well meet again in Atlanta come the first week of December.

Prediction: Florida 17 Auburn 16 (Auburn Covers, Under)


Vanderbilt @ #14 Georgia (-13.5, 38) 12:30 Lincoln Financial

OffPFTYPGPYPGRYPG
VAN21.2321.8161.8160
GEO26.8300.8165.5135.3
DefPATYPGPYPGRYPG
VAN16.8302.5154.2148.3
GEO14.2258.3156102.3

Recent Meetings:
DateAway/HomeLineO/U
10/15/2005GEO 34 - VAN 17GEO -16O 48
10/16/2004VAN 3 - GEO 33GEO -23U 46
10/18/2003GEO 27 - VAN 8VAN 26U 48
10/19/2002VAN 17 - GEO 48GEO -25- -
10/13/2001GEO 30 - VAN 14GEO -7.5
Vanderbilt
Datevs.ScoreLineO/U
10/7/2006@ MISSL 10-17L -1.5U 41
9/30/2006TEMW 43-14L -32.5O 44
9/23/2006TENSTW 38-9- -- -
9/16/2006ARKL 19-21W 6U 41
9/9/2006@ ALABL 10-13W 14.5U 40.5
Georgia
Datevs.ScoreLineO/U
10/7/2006TENNL 33-51L 2.5O 37.5
9/30/2006@ MISSW 14-9L -17.5U 37
9/23/2006COLW 14-13L -26.5U 36.5
9/16/2006UABW 34-0W -17.5U 40
9/9/2006@ SOCARW 18-0W -2.5U 38.5


Team Updates:
Vanderbilt is coming of a disappointing loss at Ole Miss this past Saturday in a game they were the favorite. QB Chris Nickson has proved to be an adequate replacement for Jay Cutler, by Nickson may be slowed by a gimpy ankle this Saturday. The Commodores have been very balanced on offense this season.
Georgia will be licking its wounds after a 18 point loss to Tennessee last week at home. Mark Richt has said that both Joe Tereshinski and Matt Stafford will play in the first half. Neither QB has shown much this season and will mainly rely on the tailback by committee system the Bulldogs have used. Defensively, Georgia ranks statistically very high, but failed in their first test against a good offense.

I don't think Vandy will be able to do much on offense vs Georgia, but the same goes for the Bulldogs when they have the ball as well. Still, Georgia has a lot more talent and speed than the Commodores and will want to put last week behind them in front of them Homecoming crowd. Georgia is typically not a good home favorite vs SEC competion, but they have covered four of the last five vs Vandy. The ankle situation with Nickson will be something to watch.

Prediction: Georgia 21 Vanderbilt 7 (Georgia Covers, Under)


Florida State @ Duke (-21.5, 41.5) 1:00

OffAvgYardsPassRush
FSU26.4321.2215106.2
DUKE5.4217.614869.6
DefAvgYardsPassRush
FSU1727118388
DUKE26306.8207.499.4

Recent Meetings
DateAway/HomeLineO/U
10/22/2005FSU 55 - DUKE 24FSU -30O 48.5
11/6/2004DUKE 7 - FSU 29DUKE 30U 45
9/27/2003FSU 56 - DUKE 7FSU -30- -
9/21/2002DUKE 17 - FSU 48DUKE 45- -
9/1/2001FSU 55 - DUKE 13FSU -30- -

FSU
Datevs.ScoreLineO/U
10/5/2006@ NCSTL 20-24L -9.5O 40
9/23/2006RICEW 55-7W -30.5O 46
9/16/2006CLEML 20-27L -4O 46.5
9/9/2006TROYW 24-17L -25.5U 44
9/4/2006@ MIAMIW 13-10W 4U 38
Duke
Datevs.ScoreLineO/U
10/7/2006@ ALABL 14-30W 26.5O 41
9/30/2006VIRGL 0-37L 4P 37
9/16/2006@ VATCHL 0-36L 34U 43.5
9/9/2006@ WFRSTL 13-14W 20.5U 40.5
9/2/2006RICHL 0-13- -- -

Team Updates:
The Blue Devils gained some confidence last week leading Alabama in the 2nd half, but they could not hold on in the 4th quarter. This team has been very up and down, losing big one week and then playing it close the next week.
FSU has had 9 days to let the NC State loss sit in their stomach and I doubt they like it much. Drew Weatherford is not playing very well at QB and the Seminoles are still searching for a run game.

Prediction: Florida St 35 Duke 7 (FSU Covers, Over)



Fla. Intl. @ Miami (-25.5, 40) 7:00

OffAvgYardsPassRush
FLINT15.3276.7196.580.2
MIAMI21.8356.6200.8155.8
DefAvgYardsPassRush
FLINT21.8291.5154.3137.2
MIAMI14.8262198.863.2

Recent Meetings
No recent meetings
Datevs.ScoreLineO/U
10/7/2006@ NOTEXL 22-25L 1O 41
9/30/2006ARKSTL 6-31L -7.5U 41
9/23/2006@ MDL 10-14W 20.5U 45
9/16/2006BGRENL 28-33L 4O 48.5
9/9/2006@ SOFLOL 20-21W 20U 42


Miami
Datevs.ScoreLineO/U
10/7/2006NCARW 27-7P -20U 44
9/30/2006HOUW 14-13L -17U 48.5
9/16/2006@ LOUL 7-31L 5U 53.5
9/9/2006FLAMW 51-10- -- -
9/4/2006FSUL 10-13L -4U 38


Team Updates:
Fla Intl is 0-6 coming into this game, but they have lost four game by five points or less. They are a pass-happy team that can't really run the ball very well.
Miami probably gained some confidence back after defeating UNC by 20 last week, but it is confirmed that this is nowhere near the Miami teams of old. Kyle Wright is still struggling largely due to the fact his offensive line cannot protect him. Javarris James has emerged as a 100 yard rusher the last few weeks.

Fla Intl has a very good chance to cover in this game because Miami is simply not able to dominate teams like they used to. I think Fla Intl will be able to put some pressure on Kyle Wright like everyone else has and get a turnover in this game.

Prediction: Miami 28 Fla Intl 10 (FIU Covers, Under)

Other Games:
Michigan @ Penn St (+5.5, 41)
Penn St Covers, Under

Baylor @ Texas (-26.5, 48)
Texas Covers, Over

Ohio St @ Michigan St (+14, 54)
Ohio St Covers, Under

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