Wednesday, December 6, 2006

Did The BCS Get It Right?

Yes and No

The BCS was designed to put the two best teams in the Championship Game at the end of the season. Ohio State clinched one of those spots with a victory over Michigan two weeks ago, but the other spot was still up for grabs.

USC looked to have the best shot to take the number 2 spot as long as they beat Notre Dame and UCLA to finish the season. The Trojans looked magnificent in beating Notre Dame by three touchdowns and took over the number 2 spot from the Wolverines. But a loss to UCLA as 13 point favorites knocked the Trojans out of their fourth title game in four years.

Meanwhile in Atlanta, Florida was leading Arkansas by the slimmest of margins at halftime when the news of the Bruin upset was announced. The Gators went on to defeat the Razorbacks and win the SEC Championship going 12-1 in the process with their only loss on the road to Auburn.

Michigan has been lying around for two weeks after a three point loss to the Buckeyes hoping for a USC loss. They got their wish, but many voters switched their votes from the previous week placing Florida number 2 and Michigan number 3. An interesting turn of events was Jim Tressell abstaining from the coaches’ vote for the one week when all coaches’ ballots were made public.

The Wolverines have a case considering the did lose to Ohio State by just 3 in Columbus (spread was 6.5) and Vegas projected the Wolverines as a 6 point favorite over the Gators if they matched up on a neutral field. However, Michigan has its shot and lost. Furthermore, the Gators won the toughest conference from top to bottom in the nation, while Michigan finished second in relatively weak Big 10.

I believe Michigan is the second best team in the nation, so the BCS did not get it right. But the voters have not seen Michigan in two weeks where as they have seen Florida wins the last two weeks. Maybe you can blame the Big 10 for not having its teams play the third week after November as the voters did not have a recent glimpse of the Wolverines. Michigan must now blow out USC in the Rose Bowl have Florida win by a very narrow margin (possibly controversially), and hope for a split title. The BCS did luck out though because a rematch with a Michigan win would spur more controversy as to who was number one.

My Top 10
I make these rankings based on who would win on neutral fields in a best of 3 scenario
1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Florida
4. LSU
5. USC
6. Wisconsin
7. Louisville
8. Oklahoma
9. Arkansas
10. Notre Dame

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