Monday, January 1, 2007

Orange Bowl Preview:Louisville Blowout?


Orange Bowl Miami, FL January 2 8PM FOX

Wake Forest vs Louisville
Line: -10, 52

8:00 PM ET

W/L

ATS

H

A

AF

AA

O/U

Wake Forest

11-2-0

8-4-0

4-2

7-0

22.2

14.7

3-9-0

Louisville

11-1-0

8-4-0

6-0

5-1

38.9

16.6

7-5-0







Quick Hits:
Wake Forest 4-1 ATS last 5
Wake Forest 1-4 O/U last 5
Wake Forest as Dog: 8-0 ATS, 7-1 SU, 2-6 O/U
Wake Forest as Double Digit Dog: 1-0 ATS, 0-1 SU, 0-1 O/U

Louisville 4-1 ATS last 5
Louisville 4-1 O/U last 5
Louisville as Fav: 8-4 ATS, 11-1 SU, 7-5 O/U
Louisville as Double Digit Fav: 6-3 ATS, 9-0 SU, 5-4 O/U

Season Recap Wake Forest:
Big Wins: @Myld 38-24, @FSU 30-0
Bad Losses: vVT 6-27
Record vs Bowl Teams: 4-2
Common Opp: vSyra 20-10, @UConn 24-13

Season Recap Louisville:
Big Wins: vWV 44-34, vMia 31-7
Bad Losses: None
Record vs Bowl Teams: 5-1
Common Opp: @Syra 28-13,vUConn 48-17

Wake Forest Offense vs Louisville Defense
98th in Total Offense vs 41st in Total Defense
44th in Rushing vs 21st in Rushing
107th in Passing vs 75 in Passing
74 in Pts Per Game vs 19 in Pts Per Game
The Deamon Deacons will use everything from standard I formation to wing T in trying to move the ball. Riley Skinner is more of a game manager than anything at QB. Louisville will likely try to put a lot of pressure on the redshirt freshman. More than anything, the Deacs must control the clock as they do not have the firepower to hang with Louisville offensively.

Louisville Offense vs Wake Forest Defense
3rd in Total Offense vs 39th in Total Defense
10th in Rushing vs 22nd in Rushing
7th in Passing vs 77th in Passing
3rd in Pts Per Game vs 10th in Pts Per Game
Louisville is going to get their points. Wake must be able to generate some turnovers something that Rutgers was able to do in the Cardinals only loss. The Deacs have made a living all season on turnovers.

Prediction:
Wake Forest has made a living on being the underdog this season and this game is no exception. However, I think the magical run by the third-smallest school in Division I-A football (Tulsa, Rice) ends against Louisville. The Cards are one bad half from being undefeated and have a lot of speed and talent.

Louisville Wins, Covers, Under

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