Thursday, September 13, 2007


Week 3 predictions.

Florida vs Tennessee 3:30 CBS
Line: Florida -7, 54

Tim Tebow will attempt to become only the third UF QB since 1990 to beat Tennessee in their first start. An SEC Championship Game berth may hang in the ballots as the loser has not made it to Atlanta since 1997. Both teams lost starters to injury this week (Andre Caldwell, Antonio Gaines). I think the Vols need to stick with the run despite temptations if they get behind early. They do not have as high powered offense as Florida and have some questions with a young secondary. This game could turn into a blowout if Tebow can keep the Vols off balance.

This line has come down slightly since its -8 opening. I think the total may rise due to the expectation of a shootout with two good offenses and questions of defense. The home team is only 2-5 in the last 7 games. Florida is 3-2 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The highest total over the last 5 games is 58 and the lowest is 23. I like the over in this game and I like the Gators chances to cover at home.
Florida Wins, Covers, Over

Georgia Tech vs Boston College 8:00 ESPN2
Line: GT - 6.5, 48

Early season showdown in the ACC as the two best teams so far battle in Atlanta. Both teams have potent offenses - Georgia Tech does it on the ground and Boston College does it through the air. Both teams have been strong against the run, but some of this due to opponents having to come from behind. I think this game comes down to Georgia Tech's ability to get to Matt Ryan with the blitz. Ryan is very similar to Brady Quinn who threw for over 200 yards against Tech last year.

BC is 19-8 in their last 27 games away from Chesnut Hill - pretty impressive road record. GT is 12-5 in their 17 ACC home games. BC is 29-21 against conference opponents over the last 7 years. The Eagles will be playing their 3rd straight big game under a new coach, while Georgia Tech got to rest for three quarters last week against Samford. I think BC is again flying under the radar, but Tashard Choice and the Yellow Jacket running attack are just too much.
Ga Tech wins, BC Covers, Under

Alabama vs Arkansas 6:45 ESPN
Line: Alab -3, 47

Another early season conference showdown that is huge in the SEC West standings and huge for the head coaches involved. Arkansas will be without red zone target Marcus Monk. The question for the Razorbacks is can they take advantage of a weak front 7 of Alabama. I think McFadden needs to have a Heisman type game to lift the Razorbacks past their deficiencies in the passing game. Alabama has gotten a surprise from their running game and pass rush, who knocked out Vandy QB Chris Nickson. If John Parker Wilson can hook up with deep threats Keith Brown and DJ Hall, then the Tide could roll in this game.

Arkansas has failed to cover in their last 5 games. Arkansas has covered in the last 4 meetings. Nick Saban was 3-2 vs Arkansas at LSU. The under is 24-10 in the last 34 where Alabama is a favorite.
Alabama Wins, Covers, Under

Other games:
I like North Carolina in a breakthrough ACC win for Butch Davis over Virginia. Al Groh should probably start looking. If Auburn doesn't cover the 13 points against Miss St, then they are in trouble this year. Tyrod Taylor starts for VT against Ohio, but Sean Glennon is not very happy about it. Potential team splitting decision if Taylor struggles. I think VT rolls in this one. Miami vs Fla International. I expect the refs to be very, very tight in this game. Miami has no trouble in this one. Wake is the best 0-2 team in the country and beats Army convincingly. Vandy disappointed me last week, but they should handle Ole Miss at home. An offensive showcase will be in Lexington as Louisville and Kentucky play to 100. The Cardinals defense is better.

Upset Special:
I think FSU is in trouble and the high altitude won't help. Colorado upsets the Seminoles.

Season Record:
5-2 SU
5-2 ATS
3-4 O/U

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