Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Texas AM at Miami

Texas AM @ Miami 7:30 ESPN Thursday
Line: Miami -2.5, 46.5

Thursday night ACC action as the Big 12 comes calling in Miami. Texas AM brings a 3-0 record into the Orange Bowl and an impressive running attack led by Mike Goodson, Javorskie Lane, and QB Stephen McGee. Miami is still having issues at QB, but has turned back to Kyle Wright for the time being. The Hurricanes are trying to avoid back to back 2-2 starts while the Aggies are hoping for their first back to back 4-0 starts since Bear Bryant in 1956-57.

Why Miami will win:
The Hurricanes appear to have found some reliable receivers in Darnell Jenkins and Lance Leggett. Javarris James and Graig Cooper have been solid on the ground as well. Miami has the luxury of playing at home on just 4 days rest while Texas AM had to travel half away across the country. The Aggie defense could help the Canes break out of the offensive doldrums as they are allowing 380+ yards a game defensively. This game is at night and the Orange Bowl is always a little more lively under the lights.

Why Texas AM will win:
All the Aggies have to do is force turnovers from Kyle Wright, which isn't hard to do considering Florida International forced 3 last week. After getting those turnovers, they can control the ball with their punishing run attack averaging close to 300 yards per game. Texas AM is very efficient in the red zone having converted 20/20 chance this season.

ATS Details:
Texas AM 1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U
Miami 1-2 ATS, 1-2 O/U
Texas AM 7-2-1 ATS in last 10

Texas AM is 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS vs road BCS teams under Dennis Franchione
Miami is 2-9 ATS in last 11 vs teams with winning records
Under is 21-5 in last 26 Miami home games

I think the Aggies have too much firepower in the backfield for the Hurricanes to stop all night long. Also, neither Kyle Wright nor Kirby Freeman has been able to show consistency or ability to take care of the ball.
Texas AM wins, Covers, Under

Last Week: 2-1 SU, 2-0-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U
Season: 7-3 SU, 7-2-1 ATS, 5-5 O/U

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