Saturday, February 16, 2008

Georgia Tech Strutts Their Stuff

Miami @ Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech faces a must win home game on Sunday if it wants to have any shot at the NCAAT. The Yellow Jackets were on a bit of hot streak on the road until losing their last two away from Atlanta. The Jackets are just 5-5 at home this year while Miami sports a respectable .500 road record. The Hurricanes have had 7 days since their win in Blacksburg last Saturday. In their first matchup this year, Tech jumped out to an early lead but turnovers turned the tide to Miami in the 2nd half for the win. For Tech to win they have to control their turnovers and not let Miami get such a huge advantage at the FT line like they did against Va Tech and the last time these two teams met. I think Georgia Tech gets a boost from a slumping Matt Causey and pulls this one out at the end by 3-8 points.
Prediction: Georgia Tech

How do I like the line on this game? I use a simple theory to help me out. If Miami and Georgia Tech played 10 times, how many would each win? I say Ga Tech wins 7 out of 10 at home. Divide 7 by 3 (# of Miami wins) and multiply by 100. This gives a line of GT-230. Now this isn't a definite one way or the other. I would give leeway of -210 to -250 as being a pretty good line.

Duke @ Wake Forest
When will Duke lose a conference game? They will not go 16-0 (my guess is 14-2) so when will it happen? Well Wake is 13-1 at home this year and they are due for a victory over the Blue Devis (Deacs have lost last 5), but I don't see it happening here. Duke is shooting the ball very well from 3 point land and that would the great equalizer Wake would need. The two teams play a very similar style of offense - drive and kick, but Duke has better talent to run that offense. I like Duke to win by 7-12 points in Winston Salem.
Prediction: Duke

Using my logic above, I think Duke wins this game 8 times out of 10. That puts the line at Duke -400. I would say -375 to -425 is a good bet.

Season: 44-11 (80%)
ACC: 23-6 (79%)

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