Thursday, March 20, 2008

NCAA First Round Spread Analysis

I used the spread from USA Today to do some analysis on them to see if there is any value in particular games. I sorted by the favorite seed ascending and spread for that game descending. If you go by seeding then Davidson is the biggest gamble to win their opening round game as a 10 seed. 9 seeds Texas A&M and Kent State are also favored but historically 8-9 games have gone 50/50.

The first break in seed to spread ratio is at 3/4 where 4. UConn is a bigger fav than 3. Xavier. The bettors feel that 6. Marquette is 2 points safer vs Kentucky than 5. Drake is against Western Kentucky. And finally Butler blows away other 7 seeds and would second amongst 6 seeds with their 4.5 spread over South Alabama.
For my money, I like Marquette at -5.5 and Arkansas at +1.5 as my two favorites of the day. Here are my Thursday and Friday picks.
SeedFAVSpreadDOGSeed 2
1UCLA32Miss Valley16
1MEMPHIS25UT Arlington16
1KANSAS23Portland16
2TENNESSEE20American15
2DUKE19.5Belmont15
2GEORGETOWN16.5UMBC15
2TEXAS15.5Austin Peay15
3STANFORD15Cornell14
3LOUISVILLE12.5Boise St14
3WISCONSIN11.5Fullerton14
3XAVIER9Georgia14
4CONNECTICUT10.5San Diego13
4PITTSBURGH9.5Oral Roberts13
4Wash St9Winthrop13
4VANDERBILT7Siena13
5MICHIGAN ST7Temple12
5NOTRE6G. Mason12
5CLEMSON5.5Villanova12
5DRAKE3.5W. Kentucky12
6MARQUETTE5.5Kentucky11
6PURDUE3Baylor11
6USC2.5KansasSt11
6OKLAHOMA1.5St Joes11
7BUTLER4.5So Alabama10
7WVA1.5Arizona10
7Miami0St Marys10
8Miss St2Oregon9
8INDIANA1.5Arkansas9
9TAM2BYU8
9Kent St1.5UNLV8
10Davidson1.5GONZAGA7

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