Saturday, March 29, 2008

North Carolina-Louisville Prediction

East Region Final
Charlotte, NC

1. North Carolina vs 3. Louisville

My Louisville scouting report
My North Carolina scouting report

For North Carolina to win:

They have to get Tyler Hansbrough going earlier than they did against Washington State

Need good bench production from guys like Danny Greene

Force turnovers into transition points

For Louisville to win:
Make someone else besides Hansbrough beat you

Keep UNC off your boards defensively

Slow it down and make the Heels play 25 seconds on defense in the half court where they can have lapses.

North Carolina Louisville line:
North Carolina is the favorite in this game and should be. The line opened with UNC as around a 5 point favorite, but has been moving towards -6 indicating a lot of money being place on the Heels. The line has Carolina at about 2.5 to 1 to win which is a very large line considering Davidson was just over 2 to 1 dog against Wisconsin. The line has to look very favorable for Louisville backers.

This will be the best team North Carolina has played all year. The Tar Heels will have the crowd in their favor, but Louisville will bring a lot of fans as well. It will be interesting to see how North Carolina plays in a tight game since they have not had one in this Tournament winning all 3 games by 20+ points. I think North Carolina has too much depth, offensive balance, and the best player in Tyler Hansbrough. I like the Tar Heels to win this one in a nail-biter 84-80.

Pick: North Carolina

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