Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Auburn-Mississippi State: Prediction



Auburn @ Mississippi State
7:00 PM ET ESPN2
Line: Aub -10.5

The Auburn Tigers try to avenge a loss handed to them by Mississippi State last year in each team's first SEC game of the season. The Tigers are running Tony Franklin's version of the spread offense using a dual QB system. Mississippi State was tripped up in their first game on the season at La Tech, but beat SE Louisiana last week.

Keys to the Game:

1. Creating Turnovers


Last season, the Bulldogs of Mississippi State created turnovers with a ball-hawking defense. This season, the ball has not bounced their way so far like it did in '07. The Bulldogs had 5 turnovers in their loss to La Tech. With an anemic offense, Miss State has to rely partly on their defense to give them good field possession. Every turnover that Auburn's defense can create is doubly harmful to State because Sly Croom's offense has really struggled this year.

2. Ball Control

Auburn's Franklin likes to run a lot of plays during the game. Last week, Southern Miss actually ran more plays than Auburn. On the other side, Miss State knows they cannot allow their defense to be on the field all game and need to control the ball. The Bulldogs best chance to win is to keep their defense fresh and keep the Auburn offense off the field.

Prediction

I think this one will be a low scoring game. Miss State will need some big plays on defense and have their offense surprise to get over 17 in this one. Auburn's offense is not clicking either and will struggle against a very good defense of Miss State.

Auburn 17 Miss State 10
Miss State Covers

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