Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Clemson-Boston College Preview and Prediction

Clemson @ Boston College
Saturday 3:30PM

Line: BC -4

Boston College has been a thorn in Clemson’s side since the Eagles joined the ACC. Last season, Clemson looked to be on the verge of the elusive ACC Championship Game until BC upset them in Death Valley. Many things have changed since last season, including Clemson’s coach and ACC title aspirations. BC is coming off a road loss to UNC after reeling of several wins in a row.

Boston College Offense vs Clemson Defense

The Eagles like to pound it on the ground and move the ball to the tune of 155 rypg. QB Chris Crane is not the most fleet of foot, but he can get himself out of sticky situations in the pocket if need be. However, last week BC was held in check with just 40 total rushing yards. Crane will spread the ball around to five or six receivers and BC has some of the better TEs in the ACC.

Clemson's defense has not been the problem this year. The Tigers are giving up 17 points per game and 12ppg on the road. The team is led by their experienced secondary, but is weak at the linebacker spot. Clemson's undersized, but fast defensive line will have their hands fu
ll with a BC o-line.

Clemson Offense vs Boston College Defense
It is likely both Willy Korn and Cullen Harper will play at QB on Saturday. It is not likely to make much of a difference between the two as neither as played to expectations in 2008. RB James Davis is having a good senior year, but not the kind he wanted to turn away the NFL for. CJ Spiller should be a go after sitting out the last few weeks. WR Aaron Kelly had a break out game last time against Georgia Tech. You hear all these names I have rattled off and you wonder why Clemson has struggled so much? It is the inexperienced offensive line and lack of red zone conversions.

I thought BC had a pretty good defense until last week against UNC when they gave up 45. I will call it a one week fluke. The strength of this defense if right up the middle at the DT spot led by BJ Raji. Losing LB Brian Toal was a huge hit to the LB corps. The Eagles are giving up 109 rypg and just 160 through the air making them statistically one of the best in the ACC.

Looking at this line it seems like a sucker bet to me. BC is getting around 3 points for the home game, but other than that it is basically a pick'em. Clemson interim coach Dabo Swinney had they off week to prepare and start putting in more of his system and principles, but I think this Tiger team is already lost. BC is usually the type of team that does not beat themselves and Clemson is that kind of team. I will take BC at home to cover the -4.

Boston College 20 Clemson 14
Boston College Covers -4

Last Week: 3-2 ATS, 3-2 SU
Season: 23-9-2 ATS, 23-11 SU

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