Friday, October 24, 2008

LSU-Georgia Preview and Prediction

Georgia 6-1 at LSU 5-1
Saturday 3:30 PM
Line: LSU -1

Both Georgia and LSU still have national title aspirations, but one of their hopes may be dashed on Saturday as the teams meet in Baton Rouge. Georgia is coming off two straight East Division wins over Vandy and Tennessee. LSU bounced back from their loss at Florida with a road win over South Carolina last Saturday.

Georgia Offense vs LSU Defense
The Bulldog Offense has been a bit of a mystery this year because of their lack of point production. They have racked up yards between the 20s, but have really struggled in the red zone. I would advise more hand offs to Knowshon Moreno as a cure to this. QB Matt Stafford is not living up to his pre season hype yet, but at least this year he has a bona fide threat at wide out in AJ Green. The UGA o-line is young and inexperienced. Many times Mark Richt leaves in max protect on passing plays to help out his shuffled line.

A young UGA offensive line has LSU’s d-line licking their chops. This unit is one of the best in the country and goes 8 deep with little drop off. Take out the Florida game and this defense has played like one of the best in the nation all year. In their only loss, LSU was not able to stop the run against Florida. The secondary is not as good as in recent years, but is still a solid unit.

LSU Offense vs Georgia Defense
The Tiger Offense is one of the most talented collections of 10 players in the country. But the QB position has been a work in progress with Jarrett Lee and Andrew Hatch splitting time; Lee is the passer and Hatch the runner. RB Charles Scott is a punishing, downhill runner who LSU relies on to move the ball. The WR corps is very talented as well let by Brandon LaFell. The o-line is one of the best in the SEC, but sometimes does not play to its potential.

Defensively, Georgia has been solid this year, but not spectacular. The strength of the unit is their run defense where they are allowing under 70 ypg. UGA does not blitz very much relying on their front four to get pressure. The secondary has a glaring hole at cornerback in Bryan Evans. Evans was replaced last week after giving up two TD passes his way. Georgia plays a more conservative style of defense than LSU allowing them to prevent the big play, but not creating a lot either.

I think this one has the makings of a classic SEC 12 round bout. Both of these teams have been blown out and know one more slip up and they are out of the national title picture. LSU’s lines would scare me if I am Georgia considering how young the Bulldog o-line is. LSU is tough at home, but so is Georgia under Mark Richt on the road. I like Georgia’s playmakers better on offense and think they have a huge difference maker in Knowshon Moreno. The redshirt sophomore has done very well despite a young o-line and I think he gets back in the Heisman race with a big day in Death Valley.

Georgia 23 LSU 21
Georgia Covers +1

Last Week: 2-1 ATS, 3-0 SU
Season: 20-7-2 ATS, 20-9 SU


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