Thursday, October 2, 2008

Will Alabama Have a Let Down Against Undefeated Kentucky?

Kentucky Wildcats 4-0 @ Alabama Crimson Tide 5-0
Line: Alab -16.5

Both Kentucky and Alabama come into Saturday undefeated on the season, but with different levels of national respect. Kentucky has largely won their games against grossly inferior opponents. While Alabama has beaten two top ten teams at the time convincingly, including last weekend's domination of Georgia on the road.

Kentucky Offense vs Alabama Defense
Kentucky has not suffered from a lack of offense so far this season despite the heavy losses at the skill positions from last year. QB Michael Hartline has performed well, but he is aided by an improved Wildcat rush attack averaging 170 ypg. Kentucky out gained Western Kentucky by 241 total yards last week.

The Alabama defense has been dominant mostly because of their defensive line. DT Terrance "Mount" Cody is a force at 365 lbs on the inside. Last week, the Tide defense dominated a young Georgia offensive line disrupting both the running and passing games en route to shutting out the Bulldogs in the first half. Alabama is allowing just 55 rush yards per game due to their line and the fact that everyone has been playing from behind. The back seven is good, but not great and has yet to be tested.

Key: Will Alabama's D-Line dictate what Kentucky can do of offense just like they have done to everyone else?

Alabama Offense vs Kentucky Defense
Just like on the defensive side of the ball, the Alabama offensive line is leading the way for a punishing ground game averaging 215 ypg. QB John Parker Wilson had the best game of his career against Georgia going 13-16. The running back tandem of Mark Ingram and Glen Coffee is averaging 5.2 yards per clip.

Kentucky is no slouch on defense and is giving up just 227 ypg total, 32 yards less than Alabama. But the Wildcats have done it against much less competition. Still, this defense is much improved over last years unit which had to rely on the offense to score 35 plus every game.

Key: Is this Kentucky Defense physical enough to match Alabama?

Alabama is due for a little bit of a letdown after last weeks hype. They did not look nearly as good against Tulane as they did against Clemson the week prior. Kentucky is undefeated and has a very good scoring defense, but the best team they have played is Louisville or Middle Tennessee State (which they almost lost). Alabama may let Kentucky stick around for a while, but will definitely win this one.

Alabama 30 Kentucky 17
Kentucky Covers

Last Week: 2-1 ATS, 1-2 SU
13-5-1 ATS, 12-7 SU


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