Thursday, November 20, 2008

LSU - Ole Miss Preview and Prediction

LSU vs Ole Miss
Line: LSU –4

Saturday will be the first time since 2003 both LSU and Ole Miss will meet with winning records. This was a big time rivalry back in the 50s and 60s but LSU has dominated as of late. The Tigers are struggling in 2008 already with 3 losses and having to rip off 30+ points in the 4th quarter against Troy last week. Ole Miss shut out La-Monroe and played their best game of the year.

Keys to the Game:

1. 'Pick 6' Battle

We may have the two most inconsistent QBs in the SEC battling each other in Jarrett Lee and Jevan Snead. There may be worse QBs in the SEC, but those one are consistently bad. Lee threw his 7th pick six last week while Snead has had trouble too knowing which team to throw to this season. LSU’s first 21 players could compete with anyone in the country, but #22 (Lee) is killing them this season. Which QB will play better?

2. Stuff the Box
Both of these teams prefer to run the ball and are average at best passing, especially LSU. If I am Ole Miss, I stack the box and make Lee beat me over the middle of the field. He can pass to the outside, but really struggles over the middle. Jevan Snead is more advanced as a QB, but if LSU can get pressure on him he could really struggle. Who will be able impose their will on the lines?

The four point spread baffles me. Vegas is basically saying that on a neutral field, LSU and Ole Miss are equal. Ole Miss seems like the hot pick here with many jumping off the LSU bandwagon after losing three games this season. But I think people are selling LSU a little short.
If Lee can just avoid multiple, big mistakes then LSU should win this one. Ole Miss is definitely improved in Houston Nutt's first year, but some of that may be Ed Ogeron's talent infusion finally coming to fruition. Most everything has to go right for Ole Miss to pull this one off and that is too much to ask.
LSU 31 Ole Miss 21
LSU Covers -4

Last Week: 3-2 ATS, 4-1 SU
Season: 28-18-2 ATS, 32-16 SU

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