Tuesday, December 30, 2008

LSU vs Georgia Tech Prediction


Chick Fil A Bowl
Georgia Tech vs LSU


Wednesday, Dec 31 7:30 PM ESPN
Atlanta, GA

Line: Georgia Tech -4

Overview

The red hot Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets walk down the street to play the defending BCS Champion LSU Tigers in an ACC vs SEC bowl game. Georgia Tech is coming off a road win at Georgia while LSU stumbled down the stretch losing 3 of their last 4. The Yellow Jackets will be looking to go 3-0 vs the SEC and grab their first 10 win season win 10 years.

Keys to the Game:

1. Turnovers

So this seems redundant with the Vanderbilt – Boston College game but turnovers have been the biggest downfall in Georgia Tech’s losses. In those 3 losses, GT is -6 in turnover margin, but in 9 wins they are +11 in turnovers. Paul Johnson’s club is 8-1 in 2008 when they win the turnover battle. The one win without winning the turnover margin was a 3 pointer over Gardner-Webb. I said if Georgia Tech wins the turnover margin against UGA they would win and they did. So I will say it again here.

2. Can Charles Scott Carry LSU?

Like he has carried defenders in the SEC this year? Scott reminds me of Virginia’s Cedric Peerman who torched Tech back in October. I don’t think LSU can rely on freshman Jordan Jefferson to lead them to victory. Scott has to get going early to take pressure of the LSU passing game and to keep the ball away from an offense that has gone for 40+ in their last two games.

3. What Impact Does Preparation Time Have?

Some say that a big reason why the option is so hard to defend is because you have 1 week to get a scout team running an entirely new offense at a speed comparable to your opponent. Well LSU has had 4 weeks to prepare for this game. But the time off also works to Georgia Tech’s advantage because they have had time to put in new phases of the offense. Remember, this is Johnson’s first year at Tech. Don’t be surprised if you see LSU open in an unorthodox defense or Ga Tech open up with the pass.

Motivation

Both teams want to finish off their season with a win, but that extra win means more to Georgia Tech than it does to LSU. The Yellow Jackets are going for a 10 win season when many picked them not to even be in a bowl game this year. Also, expect a partisan Tech crowd with them playing just a few miles from their campus. LSU is playing for pride and an 8 win season and the Tigers didn’t envision themselves in the Chick Fil A Bowl back in August.

Prediction

I think LSU’s defense takes another beating in this one. The Tigers have good stats against the run, but the option is a totally different attack than what they saw in the SEC. Georgia Tech’s offensive attack may start out a little slow but it gets going by the 2nd quarter. LSU’s only chance for the upset is to create turnovers and win the turnover battle.

Georgia Tech 38 LSU 21
Georgia Tech Covers –4


Confidence Ranking (of 34): 32
My confidence ranking of a Georgia Tech win

Bowls: 2-2 ATS, 3-1 SU
Season: 33-32-3 ATS, 44-24 SU


My Home Page

To check out other related posts, click on the label at the the bottom.

Subscribe to the ACC & SEC Blog Feed

AddThis Feed Button

1 comment:

  1. Anonymous10:35 PM

    LSU's 38-3 victory over Ga Tech makes your prediction of a 38-21 Tech win off by 52 points. So how many confidence points does that cost you?

    ReplyDelete