Wednesday, December 31, 2008

South Carolina vs Iowa Prediction


Outback Bowl
Iowa vs South Carolina

New Years Day 11AM ESPN
Tampa, FL

Line: Iowa -3.5

Overview

Iowa and South Carolina take the stage first on New Years Day in a Big 10 vs SEC clash. South Carolina finished the regular season on two bad losses and is looking to rebound with an 8th win for the season. While the Gamecocks were slumping, the Iowa Hawkeyes were surging with a win over previously undefeated Penn State followed up by victories over Purdue and 55-0 blanking of Minnesota.

Keys to the Game:

1. Pressure on the South Carolina QBs

The biggest reason Steve Spurrier has not had more success in Columbia is due to inconsistency at the QB position. The Gamecocks have gone back and forth with Chris Smelley and Stephen Garcia this year with neither one being able to win the job permanently (Garcia is starting the bowl game). Both of these QBs have struggled with accuracy (combined 55% on the season) and neither are very mobile. If Iowa can get pressure in the backfield, I think they can force some turnovers in the passing game.

2. Slow Down Shonn Greene

Iowa will trot out Doak Walker Award winner Shonn Greene and let him tote the ball about 25-30 times in this game. The Hawkeyes average nearly 190 ypg on the ground led by Greene. South Carolina is giving up 129 ypg good for 36th in the nation but has been grossly out gained in their last two games in the rushing category. The Gamecocks also need to get some semblance of ground game going themselves, but don’t count on it from the 109th rushing offense in the country.

Motivation

I don’t think motivation will be a problem for either team. South Carolina has to be ecstatic about playing on New Years Day with a 7-5 record. Iowa was really improving at the end of the year and can use the bowl win to kick off the off season.

Prediction

This is the only game the Big 10 is favored in for all of their bowls. I think South Carolina’s issues at QB and lack of a running game will be too much to overcome. I think Greene breaks out in the second half to pull Iowa away.

Iowa 27 South Carolina 20
Iowa Covers -3.5

Bowls: 3-3 ATS, 3-3 SU
Season: 34-33-3 ATS, 44-26 SU

Confidence Ranking (of34): 19
19 confidence points on an Iowa win

My Home Page

To check out other related posts, click on the label at the the bottom.

Subscribe to the ACC & SEC Blog Feed

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.