Wednesday, January 7, 2009

Florida vs Oklahoma Prediction


BCS Championship Game
Florida Gators vs Oklahoma Sooners

Miami, FL
Thursday 8 PM FOX

Line: Florida -4 (open -3)

Overview

This will be the last college football game of the 2008 season and it should be a good one. The Florida Gators, champions of the SEC, meet the Oklahoma Sooners, champions of the Big 12 for 2008 BCS Championship. Both schools will be going for their second BCS title and one of these coaches will be the first coach to win two BCS Championships.

I thought about doing keys for each team, but then I realized they are pretty much the same. Yesterday, I proposed three questions for both Florida and Oklahoma to answer if they want to win Thursday night. The two biggest by far I think are how well Sam Bradford plays coming off the Heisman Banquet circuit and how in sync Florida's offense is with OC Dan Mullen having pulled double duty the last month after accepting the Miss State head job.

Game Keys:

1. Sam Bradford vs Tim Tebow

The last two Heisman winners square off for the BCS Championship and their play will go a long way to determining their team's sucess. Both offenses revolve around their QBs making plays. The track record for Heisman winners in bowl games is pretty poor as of late though. Last year, Tebow struggled against Michigan in a loss. The year before Troy Smith was swallowed up by the Gators defense. In 2003 Jason White of Oklahoma succomb to the LSU Tigers and 2001 winner Eric Crouch was pummelled by Miami. Also, in general the team with the better QB play has won like LSU vs Ohio State last year and Vince Young's triumph for the 2005 title.

2. Pass Rush

Both of these teams have prolific offenses, especially the Sooners with 6 straight games scoring 58 points or more. But as we saw in the Ole Miss/Texas Tech and Utah/Alabama games, pressure on the QB disrupts even the best offenses. The defense that can dial up the blitz and get pressure on the QB has a significant advantage. On the season, Oklahoma ranked 3rd nationally with 40 sacks while the Gators were 25th with 32 sacks. Florida sacks opponent QBs once every 13 passes while Oklahoma does it every 12.5 passes.

3. Turnovers

These teams rank 1 and 2 in turnover margin. With such an even matchup of talent and coaching, the team that can get turnovers and turn them into points gains a huge advantage.

Motivation

We will just bypass this section for this bowl game. No need to discuss any motivation edge because there is none.

Prediction

I think this one could be a classic on the order of USC-Texas back in 2005 with two top QBs going head to head. Florida should have a home field advantage playing in Miami, but I don't expect it to have a factor like LSU last year in New Orleans. So far in the bowl games, high powered offenses have had trouble in bowl games most likely due to the long layoff and defenses have dominated. The Gators have the better defense of the two teams.

However, not having their offensive coordinator's full attention during the bowl preparation could be a hindrance for Florida. But mostly, I really do not like how Heisman Trophy winners have performed in their bowl games as of late. I think Tebow has completely backed up his words after the Ole Miss loss and will finish off a late Florida drive for the go ahead score.

Florida 33 Oklahoma 28
Florida Covers -4

Vote your choice for BCS #1 in the poll on the right hand side.

Bowls: 7-8 ATS, 6-9 SU
Season: 38-38-3 ATS, 47-32 SU

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5 comments:

  1. Anonymous7:58 PM

    I respect your comments, but remember that almost everyone had Ohio State over Texas in 2005. It didn't happen. Don't overlook Oklahoma's rushing defense, passing defense, as well as Sam Bradford's talent as well as his receivers. Sorry Florida. Not this time.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Anonymous8:22 PM

    thanks annoyomus but lets not forget our year 2006 when in bthe bcs we kcked the shit out of ohio state 41-14

    its quite simaler
    bradford won hiesman
    smith won hiesman

    osu lost their star rb ted ginn jr
    oklahoma lost their star rb demarco murray

    my prediction is stated here

    http://mrsec.com/story/mrsecs-bcs-national-title-game-prediction-our-fuzzy-math-never-fails

    sorry ou not this time

    ReplyDelete
  3. Anonymous2:29 PM

    thanks anonymous 2. I would like to believe in what you wrote but I take my betting advice from people who actually know what they are talking about. Ted Ginn was a WR not a RB and that OSU team was nowhere close to being the complete all-around team like Oklahoma. Yeah Smith won the Heisman but was nowhere near the Quarterback that Sam Bradford is. OU o-line is much better that of the 2006 OSU line. Also, there is no comparison to the special teams of OU and the 2006 buckeyes.

    I see 31-28 OU

    ReplyDelete
  4. If you are going to take your betting advice from someone then I would take Florida because Vegas has them favored and those guys have to feed their wives and their girlfriends off their picks.

    I think Oklahoma could win this game. I don't think we will see anything close to tOSU-Florida two years ago because Oklahoma can hang with Florida's athleticism.

    I think OU's defense will play better than people expect and I don't think the loss of Murray is big deal.

    The overriding factor for me is I think Tebow will out play Bradford.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Anonymous9:49 PM

    Watch live streaming

    college football

    ReplyDelete