Monday, January 12, 2009

North Carolina Virginia Prediction

North Carolina at Virginia
Thursday 9PM ESPN2

Could the Tar Heels really start the ACC season 0-3? After Roy Williams' team looked unbeatable in November and December they have dropped to the bottom of the ACC standings in early January. Now they have to go on the road to face a surprising Virginia team.

Now just calm down North Carolina fans. UNC out ranks Virginia in every category except FT percentage but that is a narrow 1% margin. The Heels were caught flat footed by BC after listening to the talk of an undefeated season and loss to a very good team on the road (Wake Forest).

Lets look at the way BC defeated UNC a week ago to try and gain some insight into how the Cavs could pull off the upset. The Eagles held the Heels to 38.4% shooting. UVA is allowing 44% shooting. UNC shot just 55% from the FT line, nearly 20 percent below their season average. But the kicker is UNC had 7 less possessions than their season average. For Virginia to win they have to take care of the ball, make their FTs, and play great defense.

I don't see it happening. North Carolina comes out ready to play and should win this one comfortably by 10+ points.

North Carolina wins

Season: 0-0 SU

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