Saturday, February 21, 2009

Florida vs Vanderbilt Prediction


Vanderbilt Commodores at Florida Gators
Saturday 3PM
TV: Raycom

Vanderbilt travels to Gainesville for a Saturday afternoon show down with Florida trying to improve their postseason tournament positioning. Florida won the first match up of the season in Nashville blowing out the Commodores 94-69 and is still fighting for the East Division crown.

Records:

Florida 20-6, 7-4, 14-0 (home), RPI #45
Vanderbilt 16-9, 5-6, 2-5 (away), RPI #91

Series:

Florida has won 8 of the last 10
Florida has won the last 5 at home

Players to Watch:

Florida
Nick Calathes 18.8ppg, Alex Tyus 12.5ppg, Chandler Parsons 10ppg

Vanderbilt
AJ Ogilvy 14.7ppg, Jeffery Taylor 12.4ppg, Jermaine Beal 12.4ppg


What Florida must do to win...
The Gators have to play good defense. In three of their four SEC losses, their opponent has shot better than 47 percent. In the blowout win over Vandy in January, the Dores leading scorer Ogilvy had just 4 points. If UF can hold the Australian center down like that again they will win easily. We know Calathes will get his points, but who will be the other Gator to step up and take on the scoring load? Last time versus Vandy it was Parsons who had 27 points.

What Vanderbilt must do to win...
Vandy has to get hot from outside. In the first meeting of the year, the Dores were just 6 for 22 on three pointers. In the Gators upset loss to Georgia, the Bulldogs shot 14 for 26 from outside and were shooting 57 percent from the floor. Ogilvy has to have a big game and dominate the paint against the undersized Gator front line. Vandy has four legitimate scorers who average double figures in points per game. Coach Kevin Stallings needs those four to win their individual match ups and make the Gators double team.

Prediction

The Gators are undefeated at the O'Connell Center this season and I don't see that coming to an end against an inferior Vanderbilt team. Florida should take this one relatively easily.

Florida wins by 8-15 points


Season: 17-14 SU through 2/20

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