Saturday, March 28, 2009

North Carolina-Oklahoma Prediction NCAA Elite 8


#1 North Carolina Tar Heels vs #2 Oklahoma Sooners
Sunday 5PM
Memphis, TN

North Carolina goes for their second straight Final Four appearance on Sunday, but Blake Griffin and the Oklahoma Sooners stand in their way. Expect this one to be a physical, fast paced game with the winner claiming the final spot in Detroit.

source: SI.com

How They Got Here...
#1 North Carolina d. #16 Radford 101-58, d. #8 LSU 84-70, d. #4 Gonzaga 98-77
#2 Oklahoma d. #15 Morgan St 82-54, d. #10 Michigan 73-63, d. #3 Syracuse 84-71

Keys For A Oklahoma Win :

1. The Glass...Will It Still Be Griffin's Domain?

Everyone knows of Blake Griffin's rebounding ability grabbing an astonishing 14.4 per game. But the super soph has not faced many teams that can hit the glass like UNC can; the Tar Heels grab 15 of their own shots per contest.

The Sooners have done a pretty good job this season allowing just under 13 offensive boards from their opponents, a number somewhat inflated because of their defense on opposing teams. But can Griffin keep Tyler Hansbrough and Deon Thompson at bay in the paint?

2. Free Throws...Can Oklahoma Hit'em?

Oklahoma is hitting just 68 percent from the free throw line on the season. The much fouled Griffin is a hitting a paltry 59 percent from the charity stripe.

Meanwhile, UNC hit 76 percent on the season and has shot the ninth most free throws in the nation. In a close game with a lot of action in the post, this stat could loom large late in the game.

source: SI.com

Keys For A North Carolina Win:

1. Will UNC Maintain The Hot Shooting Hand?

UNC is shooting 48 percent from the floor on the season including a 53 percent effort on Friday against Gonzaga. The Tar Heels also hit nearly 40 percent from three point range.

However, the Sooners defense allows opponents just 39.5 percent from the field. In all four of Carolina's losses, they shot under 45 percent each time.

2. Tempo...North Carolina Wants It Fast

The Tar Heels offense has their after burners back with Ty Lawson not showing any ill effects from a lingering toe injury in Friday's win. North Carolina barely missed their second straight 100 point game against a good Gonzaga team.

Oklahoma is no slow poke either averaging 79 per game. But the Sooners have to be comfortable with the tempo and not let it get too fast because no one can stay with the Tar Heels pace for long.


source: SI.com

Prediction

I do not expect Griffin and Hansbrough to be guarding each other much for fear of foul trouble on each. If North Carolina is hitting their shots, especially from long range, they are near impossible to beat. Lawson and Ellington will out play Oklahoma's less experienced guards and despite Griffin's monster game his Sooners come up just short.

Pick: North Carolina

Season: 45-29 SU through 3/28

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