Saturday, July 11, 2009

Thoughts on Early College Football Lines

The Golden Nugget has some early lines for the football season. Some observations on games of interest. Link

1003 GEORGIA
1004 OKLAHOMA ST. -3
Okie St is basically getting the home field points in the opener. I am assuming Vegas knows Richt's road record?!?!

1007 VIRG. TECH @ATLANTA GA
1008 ALABAMA -4
People are going to jump all over Alabama at -4. No one outside the ACC respects the ACC.

1027 USC -6½
1028 OHIO ST.
I like tOSU at +6.5 to USC with a new QB on the road for the first time. Not sure if that is enough to get the Buckeyes the outright win.

1031 GEORGIA TECH
1032 MIAMI (FL) -4
At first this one seems like a head scratcher, but lets investigate more. This will be GT's second Thurs game in a row and on the road. Tough to win back to back Thursday games.

1037 TENNESSEE
1038 FLORIDA -27
Depends on what mood Urban Meyer is in that day. He may wake up feeling great and sympathetic. He may not.

1061 ARIZONA ST.
1062 GEORGIA -14
I really like UGA on this line. The Sun Devils are annually overrated. Their women are not.

source: SI.com

1091 AUBURN
1092 TENNESSEE -6
This may be the only game where the total and spread are the exact same.

1107 ALABAMA
1108 MISSISSIPPI -3
Ole Miss getting the home spread, but not any more.

1101 FLORIDA -11
1102 LSU
Florida -11 @ LSU..WOW that seems like a lot for Saturday night in Baton Rouge.

1123 OKLAHOMA @DALLAS TX
1124 TEXAS -3
Early edge to Texas in a neutral site game.

1127 VIRGINIA TECH
1128 GEORGIA TECH -6
Seems a little high right now, considering GT is underdog to Miami and FSU. GT getting 2-3 points besides the home field.

1141 BOSTON COLLEGE
1142 NOTRE DAME -7
Outside of USC and Pitt(huh?), looks like ND will be favored in every game. Here comes the national title talk. Meanwhile, Utah has had two undefeated seasons since ND's last national championship.

1157 GEORGIA @JACKSONVL, FL
1158 FLORIDA -16
I could see this one being -6 or -26. Again, depends on Meyer's motivation.

1217 FLORIDA ST.
1218 FLORIDA -20
That wouldn't be a very nice way to send Bobby out.


1219 GEORGIA
1220 GEORGIA TECH -1
Basically saying on a neutral site that UGA wins.

1225 CLEMSON PICK
1226 SOUTH CAROLINA
Looks spot on to me.

What are your thoughts?

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4 comments:

  1. Really down on the Jackets, eh?

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  2. Actually I am pretty high on Ga Tech this year. I think they will be better, but I don't know if that parlays into a better record necessarily because the schedule is a little tougher.

    I would put the over/under on GT's win total at 9.5. They will likely be favored in 10 of their 12 games, but 2 or 3 will have lines in the +/- 3 points range.

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  3. The over/under at 9.5 wins for GT, is pretty reasonable I'd say. What concerns me are the shaky special teams.

    Scott Blair was inconsistent at best handling the kicking and punting duties last year.

    Paul Johnson has made special teams a priority, but if they struggle with that dept., the Jackets will find themselves on the wrong side of games they should win.

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  4. i agree on the ST. it may cost them a close game. return game should be pretty good, but kicking and punting needs to improve quickly.

    i think johnson will be going for it even more on 4th down this year.

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