Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Thoughts on Opening Win Totals

Vegas has put out their opening win totals for each teams' regular season wins. Not surprisingly, Florida leads the pack with 11 (more on that below) and Washington State brings up the rear with 3.

I was somewhat expecting an 11.5 Florida number from Vegas considering they have UF picked by double digits in every game currently. Vegas will never predict a team go undefeated because, well, how would you bet the over? These guys are smarter than you think and there is a reason casinos get bigger and more numerous, but there are always pockets of opportunity.

Lets start with the "Overs" I like:
Alabama - 9.5
Ga Tech - 8.5
Georgia - 8
FSU - 7.5
NC State - 7
Duke - 3.5
USC - 10
Oklahoma - 9.5

Now to the "Unders"
Auburn - 6.5
West Virginia - 8.5
Texas Tech - 8
Penn State - 9.5
Purdue - 5.5

To give a rough overview on Vegas does this, they set a W/L odds on each game for each team. Even though a team may be favored to win every game, their odds are not 100% to win that game. The odds of winning each game are averaged out on a scale of 12 to get a win total.

Onto the Conference Championships Odds...
Florida is listed at 1/2 and that isn't a bad bet. For value, the one I especially like is Alabama at 9/2. The Tide may not be better than Florida, but they have enough talent to stay with them and maybe they catch a break or two. Ole Miss is 9/2 also, but I don't like them nearly as much against Florida.

Over in the ACC, Va Tech is the favorite at 5/2. Both Clemson and FSU are 4/1, but if you are going to chose one, I like FSU. My best value bet is Georgia Tech at 6/1. I think the winner is coming from the Coastal this year and GT gets VT at home during the regular season. NC State and North Carolina aren't bad bets at 8/1 either.

National Championship...
Florida is the favorite at 2/1, but what is interesting is that Oklahoma (9/2) is favored over Texas (11/2) even though Texas has a higher win total (10.5) and better odds to win the Big 12 (13/10). And Mack Brown has shown he can win the big game lately; Bob Stoops has not.

Outside of Florida and Texas, I think Alabama has very good value at 15/1.

You can check out the odds and win totals here (from

What are you thoughts? See any good value out there?

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