Wednesday, October 28, 2009

ACC Predictions For Oct 24: Two Potential Upsets of ACC Favorites

It is almost the weekend, so time for some predictions. I am going to switch it up a little a try and do every ACC game by the spread. Last week I was 3-3 SU, 0-1 ATS in the ACC while going 6-0 SU and 0-1 ATS in the SEC. See if my luck changes at all this week in the ACC.

Thursday, October 22

North Carolina at Virginia Tech
Line: VT - 16.5

Virginia Tech is coming off a bye week having lost to Georgia Tech the week before. With Miami's loss, the Hokies have to hope GT slips up or else the Hokies can do no better than second in the Coastal. There has been a lot of talk surrounding the plays Frank Beamer submitted to the ACC about illegal and unsafe blocks in the GT. But I have not seen a lot about the UNC game and its importance. This makes me think VT may not be as focused as it should be.

North Carolina played last Thursday and lost at home to FSU. It is very tough to do back to back Thursday night games especially when the second one is on the road. The Heels have yet to play to their talent level this season.

Looking at the home and away stats it is pretty rough for UNC as compared to VT at home. But on the season it compares relatively favorable for the Heels as do the last three games.

Normally, I would go blindly with the Hokies at home on a Thursday night, but Beamer is just 26-23 off a bye week coming into this season. Plus, I don't think the Hokies are as focused as they should be and UNC is due for a good game.

Virginia Tech 28 North Carolina 14
North Carolina Covers -16.5

Saturday, October 24

NC State at Florida State
Line: FSU -9

This line opened at -7.5 and has moved to 9. The Wolfpack are coming off a bye week which was much needed after a three straight losses. Tom O'Brien has done fairly well off a bye week at 15-9 in his career.

On the season, NC State's stats look good against FSU's, but the Wolfpack have not been near that level in their last three and especially in their two road games. The Seminoles should have renewed confidence after the come from behind win at UNC last Thursday.

Florida State 38 NC State 27
Florida State Covers -9

Central Michigan at Boston College
Line: BC -6

The Eagles are coming off a heartbreaking loss to Notre Dame last week. Central Michigan beat Bowling Green last week. The Chippewas are 1-1 against BCS competition this year beating Michigan State in East Lansing on an onside kick recovery and losing at Arizona 19-6 to start the season.

The Eagles have been two different teams at home versus on the road this season furthering my argument that BC is a tough place to play. But BC is giving up more points than their opponents and 65 yards more per game in their last three games. Watch out for Central Michigan's QB Dan LeFevour who is as good of a dual threat QB in the nation.

Central Michigan 31 Boston College 28
Central Michigan Covers +6

Miami at Wake Forest
Line: Mia -7.5

The Hurricanes suffered a devastating loss last week against Clemson probably dashing their ACC title hopes. This young team will need to bounce back quickly though against a cornered Wake team losers of two straight.

Miami's offense is getting better statistically as the season goes on. Wake has maintained an even keel on the road versus at home and recently as compared to the entire season. I like Wake to make this one close at home.

Miami 31 Wake Forest 24
Wake Forest Covers +7.5

Duke at Virginia
Line: Virginia -7

The Blue Devils have their first back to back ACC wins since 1994 and are going for a third straight to move one step closer to bowl eligibility. The Cavaliers ride atop the ACC Coastal is over after last week's defeat to Georgia Tech. Duke won this game handily last year in Durham blowing it open in the second half to win 31-3.

Home field has not been nearly as kind to UVA as in the past going just 1-3 thus far in 2009. Meanwhile, Duke has held its own on the road scoring 33 and giving up 30 per game. I really like the momentum Duke has right now and call for the upset!

Duke 28 Virginia 27
Duke Covers +7


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