Thursday, October 1, 2009

Georgia Tech at Mississippi State Prediction October 3rd



Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Mississippi State Bulldogs
Saturday 7:30 ET
TV: CSS
Line: GT -5.5 (open -4.5)

Georgia Tech travels to Starkville on a Saturday night for an ACC versus SEC clash against Mississippi State. Last year, Ga Tech crushed Miss State in Atlanta 38-7 behind 500 yards of total offense and their back up QB Jaybo Shaw. Miss State has not beaten a non conference BCS opponent since 2000. But with renewed confidence do the Bulldogs have revenge on their mind?

As mentioned, GT defeated MSU handily, but out gained them only by 91 yards. The Bulldogs had four turnovers to aid the Yellow Jackets who gained 438 yards on the ground; their second highest total of the season. Miss State passed for 299 yards their highest total of the season.

The Bulldogs are coming off a near win over a top ten LSU team. Miss State was stopped on four straight plays at the Tigers' goal line in a 30-26 loss. They out gained LSU 374-263 and got nine more first downs.

Georgia Tech is coming off a dominating performance too but turned it into a 24-7 win over previously ranked and unbeaten North Carolina. The Yellow Jackets out gained UNC 406-154 including 317-17 on the ground. Ga Tech had 24 first downs to the Tar Heels eight while holding the ball for nearly 42 minutes.

Five Key Areas For Victory

1. Quarterback

Both teams use spread option offenses (MSU in the shotgun, GT under center) so neither QB is going to have great passing stats.
Ga Tech is heavy run and Josh Nesbitt is just 22 of 51 passing for 446 yards 2TD and 2 INT. But he is the second leading rusher on the team with 77 ypg. The junior throws the ball just 12 times per game on average.

Tyson Lee is completing 49% with 3 TD and 2 INT. Lee played against GT last year in Atlanta helping MSU compile 299 yards passing. But this is Lee's first year in Dan Mullen's offense.

Edge Georgia Tech

2. Line Of Scrimmage

Ga Tech is averaging a little over five yards per carry and 260 yards rushing per game. Their opponents have sacked the QB just three times but GT does not pass often. The Yellow Jacket defense is giving up 106 ypg on the ground. GT has failed to get much of a consistent pass rush this year but does have seven sacks on the season led be DE Derrick Morgan with 5.5.
Miss State goes for 4.26 ypc and just under 200 ypg on the ground. The offensive line has done a respectable job protecting Lee allowing just three sacks on the season. The defensive front is giving up about 130 ypg, but that number is greatly inflated by a 390 yard out put by Auburn. Miss State has sacked opponent QBs five times in 2009.

Slight Edge Georgia Tech

3. Coaching

Paul Johnson is in his second year in Atlanta continuing to implement his version of the spread option offense. His staff remained intact from year one to year two with many of the offensive staff coming down from his previous stop at the Naval Academy.

Dan Mullen was Florida's offensive coordinator under Urban Meyer (as he was at Utah) and is in his first year in Starkville. Mullen kept two of Sly Croom's assistants and brought one assistant with him from Florida. In just four games you can see a remarkable turnaround on offense from the Bulldogs.

Slight Edge Georgia Tech
4. Turnovers

GT is plus two in turnover margin this season with all of their turnovers coming in three home games. Five of Georgia Tech's seven takeaways are interceptions this season. The Bulldogs are minus two in turnovers this season and were minus four last week against LSU throwing three interceptions.
Fumbles plagued GT last year, but they have not lost a fumble since three in the opener.

Slight Edge Georgia Tech

5. Intangibles/Special Teams

Miss State is playing at home just one week after a narrow defeat to perennial SEC power LSU. The Bulldogs also will have revenge on their minds after a 31 point defeat suffered in Atlanta last year.

Georgia Tech is coming off a dominating performance last week and playing on the road at night. The Yellow Jackets have had trouble in the kicking game replacing their previous starter last week. Also, GT is just 6-17 on TD conversions in the red zone this season.

Edge Miss State

Prediction
I think this game is going to be tougher than expected for the ranked Yellow Jackets to pull off. Dan Mullen nearly had his team with two SEC wins leaving September if not for a great play by LSU. Both defenses are familiar with the offenses, so I think it will come down to coaching and talent, which GT has more of right now.

Georgia Tech 31 Miss State 27
Miss State Covers +5.5


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1 comment:

  1. I think it will be a close game but if Tech starts turning the ball over this week they may be in touble. remember Tech so far this year has not looked to good on the road.if you rhink about it Tech only looked good in one game this year i dont count Jacksonville St.But i will say Tech did play a complete game against unc.

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