Thursday, November 5, 2009

Ga Tech-Wake, UVA-Miami, NC State-Maryland, Duke-UNC Predictions

The ACC has a good slate this weekend loaded with five conference games. Clemson-Florida State headlines the action, but before we get to that game lets look at the rest of the action around the ACC.

Last Week I was 4-2 ATS and 4-2 SU in my picks.

Virginia Cavaliers at Miami Hurricanes
Line: Miami -14

The Cavaliers are coming off two straight division losses, but those two teams also lead the division currently (Ga Tech, Duke). Miami came from 13 down to beat Wake Forest who was without their starting QB Riley Skinner late in the game.

UVA has played fairly well on the road this season out gaining and out scoring their opponents. Although their last three games have not been great, I like Virginia to bounce back and make this one closer than expected.

Miami Wins
Virginia Covers +14

Maryland Terrapins at NC State Wolfpack
Line: NC State -6.5

You don’t want to miss this one ACC fans as the two bottom feeders in the Atlantic meet with the Wolfpack having their best chance yet to get a conference win. But seriously, this has become a heated rivalry dating back to the Philip Rivers era in Raleigh so I expect both teams to come out fired up regardless of their records.

The Wolfpack’s defense has been much worse than expected this season, but has played reasonably well at home allowing just 22 ppg and 261 ypg. Conversely, the Terps have really struggled away from College Park giving up nearly 500 ypg and 37 ppg.

I like NC State to finally get an ACC win by convincing fashion over Maryland.

NC State Wins
NC State Covers -6.5

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Line: GT -16

Georgia Tech is just two conference wins away from clinching the Coastal Division and is coming off an offensive explosion against Vanderbilt last week scoring 56 points. Wake Forest lost a heartbreaker to Miami 28-27 and their QB Riley Skinner’s playing status is questionable for this Saturday.

The Yellow Jackets have really got it going on offense as of late averaging 358 rush yards and 39 points per game over their past three contests. The Deacs are giving up 234 rush yards per game on the road this season and have already lost to Navy who runs a similar offense to GT.

The only thing that makes me nervous is the “trap game” aspect, but you would have thought that would have come last week against an out of conference opponent and it did not. I like Georgia Tech to win this one going away.

Georgia Tech Wins
Georgia Tech Covers -16

Duke Blue Devils at North Carolina Tar Heels
Line: UNC -10

The Duke Blue Devils are just two wins away from being bowl eligible, but even more important is that they control their destiny in the Coastal Division with just one ACC loss. North Carolina is coming off an upset win at Virginia Tech last Thursday to get their first conference win on the season.

The Blue Devils are red hot as of late out gaining their opponents by nearly 200 yards per game over their last three contests. They have also been very good at stopping the run allowing just 99 ypg over that same span. If Duke wins, it would be for just the second time in 20 tries.

North Carolina has had a disappointing season thus far considering the talent they had coming back. A double digit spread seems too much in a rivalry game that usually comes down to the end. I like UNC to pull out the victory, but see them winning by less than a touchdown.

North Carolina Wins
Duke Covers +10


1 comment:

  1. Duke playing a meaningful football game in November. Wow... I don't think they will beat UNC, but it wouldn't shock me. THey have a great passing attack.

    I agree about GT. If you were going to get them it was the last two weeks on the road. They just outscored Vandy and Virginia 90-40.


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