Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Georgia or Georgia Tech: Who Has The Better Basketball Program? A Statistical Breakdown

There is not much debate in football between the Bulldogs and Yellow Jackets, but who has the dominant program in basketball? The AJC's Jeff Schultz asked this very question in a post Monday.

Schultz concludes that with Gregory's hire at Tech the balance of power has shifted to Athens.  I am not sure how he can conclude that since Gregory has not won or lost a game yet as the Yellow Jackets head coach.

The real question is had the power already shifted to UGA even before Gregory (or whomever else) was hired? Lets take a look at some program and coaches stats.

Recent History:
-UGA defeated Georgia Tech this past season
-UGA has defeated Georgia Tech the last 2 times they've played
-UGA has a better overall record than Georgia Tech this past season (21-11 vs 13-18)
-Georgia Tech has more NCAA Tournament appearances over the last 10 years than UGA (5 vs 3)
-Georgia Tech has more Sweet 16 appearances over the last 10 years than UGA (2 vs 1)
-Georgia Tech has more Final Four appearances over the last 10 years than UGA (1 vs 0)
-Georgia Tech has more NCAA Tournament wins over the last 10 years than UGA (7 vs 1)
-Georgia Tech has a better overall winning percentage over the last 30 years (0.577 to 0.562)
-AP voters think GT is better with more weeks in AP Top 25 over the past 10 years than UGA (46 vs 26)

Recruiting:
-Georgia Tech has recruited more McDonald's AA out of high school than UGA (18 vs 8)
-Since 1998 Georgia Tech has recruited more Top 50 high school players than UGA (10 vs 2)
-Over the past 10 years Georgia Tech has had more players drafted by the NBA than UGA (7 vs 2)

Conference:
The ACC has had 21 more NBA Draft picks than the SEC over the past 10 years
The ACC has had 3 more NCAA Tournament Championships than the SEC over the past 10 years
The ACC has had 6 more Final Four teams than the SEC over the past 10 years
The ACC has had 4 more NCAA Tournament teams than the SEC over the past 5 years

From a program standpoint, it seems pretty clear Georgia Tech has the advantage with 7 NCAA Tournament wins to 1 over the last 10 years as well as advantages in recruiting and conference alignment.

However, the Bulldogs have won the last two in the series and three different UGA coaches were a combined 7-4 against Paul Hewitt.

It is now the off season so regardless of last season's results or the recent history most fans are optimistic about their program's future. What Tech did under Paul Hewitt and UGA under previous coaches has to be taken with with caution as both programs have new coaches (relatively new for UGA).

Here is how Mark Fox and Gregory stack up in overall winning percentage over the last seven seasons.

It seems after some declining years recently, Fox has righted the ship and is on the upward swing.  That continued ascension could depend on whether Juniors Trey Thompkins and Travis Leslie return to Athens next seasons. Fox also bests Gregory is overall winning percentage and conference winning percentage. Gregory is going through a declining winning percentage right now similar to what Fox experienced, but can he get it turned around with the more abundant resources available at Tech?

The answer to that question may be the deciding factor in who gains control of the Peach State in the years to come.

(h/t to Statsheet.com for the stats)

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