Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Success In The NCAA Tournament By Seed Last 10 Years

It is not too surprising that #1 seeds have the highest chance to make the Sweet 16, Elite 8, and Final 4. The 2 and 3 seed lines fall accordingly to their ranking as well.  But then it gets interesting..

5 seeds fare that much better than 4 seeds of getting to the Sweet 16 at a rate of 42.5% to 35%.  That stat would make a 5 seed a very tempting choice to advance if only their first round game against the 12 seed wasn't so tough.  12 seeds have gotten to the Sweet 16 one out of every fives times since 2001 or about half as often as 5 seeds.

If you are an 8 or a 9 seed heading into March, you are better off tanking it to move down to 10 line.  10 seeds make it to the Sweet 16 more times than 8 and 9 seeds combined. 
Chart from

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