Friday, May 6, 2011

Despite Recent Lackluster Record Mark Richt Is Still One of the Best Developers of NFL Talent

Black Heart Gold Pants (Iowa Blog) did an interesting study correlating expected NFL Draft picks based on recruiting rankings versus actual Draft picks.

The Georgia Bulldogs come in at number 11 with a "development ratio" of 131%. In other words, Mark Richt's program gets almost four players drafted for every three expected.
Black Heart and Gold Pants bases the expectation of being drafted based on NFL Draft data and the draftees recruiting ranking out of high school - 2 star recruits have a 4.9% chance of being drafted, 3 stars 8.1%, 4 stars 16.7% and 5 stars 38%.

(Only 38% of 5 star recruits get drafted?!)

BHGP explains the development formula...
For instance, let's say some college program brought in 20 4-star recruits, and 80 3-star recruits, and that 15 of them were drafted. The average BCS program, by the numbers above, would have had 10 of those recruits drafted. So our example program has a development ratio of 15/10 = 150%, very good!

Based on this data, Richt is the best developer of NFL talent in the SEC since 2002. Of course this is NFL drafted talent and does not necessarily mean a player lived up to expectations while in Athens.

But this amount of talent showing up in the NFL has to help recruiting and eventually better players will win out.

Richt is hoping those "better players" are arriving this Summer to help rebuild the UGA program into one of the SEC's elite again.

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