Saturday, June 11, 2011

ACC Football Odds: Some Thoughts on Favorite FSU, Potential Value Picks

SBR Forum has posted odds for each ACC team winning their division and the conference championship.

Boston College



Florida State

Georgia Tech



North Carolina

North Carolina State


Virginia Tech

Wake Forest


Atlantic Division
FSU as the Atlantic Division favorite should be no surprise, but their odds in comparison to their rest of their competition are a little eye opening.

A little bit of a surprise to me is Maryland coming in ahead of Clemson for second, but more so the gap between the Seminoles (-300) and Maryland which is 3.5 to 1 underdog and Clemson as a 5 to 1 underdog.  Florida State does get Randy Edsall's team at home, but has to travel to Tiger Town this season.

While FSU should definitely be the favorite it is hard to see much value with those odds relative to their competition in the Atlantic. 

As a side note, I wonder what NC State's odds would be if Russell Wilson was returning?  Probably better than +1000.  Tom O'Brien may be regretting that decision come September.

Coastal Division
Virginia Tech at the top of the Coastal at +100 is not a surprise.  Miami at +150 is a bit of surprise since Al Golden is in his first year and will be having to replace some key players gone to the NFL and does not have a proven commodity at QB.  Also, the Hurricanes have never won the division. 

The biggest surprise to me is close UNC at +200 is to VT and Miami with the rest of the Coastal much further behind.  Yes, the Tar Heels got some valuable playing time to backups last year with all the suspensions, but they will also have a new QB and Butch Davis has yet to meet pre season expectations thus far in Chapel Hill

Georgia Tech at +1200 gives you six times the odds of North Carolina and host the Tar Heels this season as well as Virginia Tech, Maryland, and Clemson.  

The favorites are correct, but given these odds I would go with Virginia Tech (+250) over FSU (+150) right now for the ACC Champion.

For value picks on each side, I like Clemson in the Atlantic and Georgia Tech in the Coastal. 

SBR Forum Thoughts

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