Thursday, September 22, 2011

I Like Georgia Against Ole Miss on Saturday But Not As Much As I Did Earlier in the Week

The UGA-Ole Miss line opened with the Bulldogs just a 6.5 point favorite.

Everybody quickly saw what I did and moved the line to -10. I still liked UGA.

Then came multiple losses on the offensive line, arguably Georgia's weakest position group.

The anchor of the line, Center Ben Jones, will move to Guard and true freshman David Andrews will start at Center. To make matters worse Jones didn't even practice fully on Wednesday due to Montezuma's revenge. Is Peria Jerry still playing in Oxford? Thankfully, not for Mark Richt.

So despite all this I still like UGA to win this game and if you make me I would take UGA against the spread. Here's why:

1. Georgia has way more talent than Ole Miss

The recruiting rankings tell me so. And before you say UGA hasn't lived up to those rankings, has Ole Miss done any better?

2. Despite all the bickering about OC Mike Bobo, UGA has a very good offense

The Bulldogs are averaging 41 points per game and 427 yards of offense this season. Their 10.5 Yards Per Point is one of the best in the conference and that includes the turnover debacle against South Carolina. In fact, this offense has a chance to break some school records at the pace they are setting.

3. Ole Miss Run Defense Is Not Very Good

UGA wants to get Isaiah Crowell more touches. If he stays healthy Saturday he should have a really good day against the Rebels who yield almost 200 yards per game on the ground.  Crowell churning out yards will allow UGA to control the clock and take the crowd out of it.

4. Georgia Has Played a Much Tougher Schedule

Even with the game against Coastal Carolina last week, the Bulldogs have played the 19th toughest schedule according to the Sagarin ratings. Ole Miss has played the 62nd toughest.

This should be a relatively easy win for Georgia. Before all this movement on the offensive line I even liked UGA at a -10.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.