Thursday, September 22, 2011

Some NC State - Cincinnati Stats To Ponder

The Wolfpack and Bearcats kick the weekend action of in the Queen City Thursday night in a return game from last season which NC State won 30-19.

Here are some notes from that game and both programs to help you make your decision on who may win and/or cover the spread.

The line opened with Cincy -7 and has moved to -7.5 as of Wednesday night.

- Last season, neither offense was as efficient in their head to head matchup than on the season as a whole

- NC State's Yards Per Point (a key metric I like because it takes into account turnovers) was 16.4 which is below average for a BCS team; on the season the Wolfpack had a respectable 12.7 YPP

- Cincinnati's was even further off their season average; in this game a year ago the Bearcats took 20.3 YPP vs 15.4 on the season

- So far in 2011, State has a 10.8 YPP but Cincy has an astounding 8.4 meaning their average touchdown drive is about 60 yards

- Such a low YPP tells me likely at least two of these are occurring:
a)Cincinnati's offense does a good job of scoring TDs and not field goals
b)their defense has forced some turnovers to give them short fields
c)their defense does not allow other teams to move the ball over midfield much
d)their punt return game is outstanding

- Both defenses are pretty good giving up 16.6 YPP (NCSU) and 16.8 (UC)

- According to the Sagarin ratings NC State's schedule ranks 132nd amongst FBS and FCS teams while Cincinnati's ranks 215 which is in the bottom 15%

- Cincinnati ranks 67th in the latest Sagarin rankings and State has already lost to the 62nd ranked team Wake Forest on the road by seven

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