Saturday, October 29, 2011

Saturday ATS Picks - Can Clemson Go To 9-0 (And 8-1 ATS)?

Spreads I like this week:

Oklahoma State -14 vs Baylor
The Robert Griffin III for Heisman story was nice but he can only carry his team for so long. Oklahoma State's offense has not missed one beat without Dana Holgorsen and despite not having a great defense they can simply make opposing offenses play one-dimensional because of the leads they jump out to. Cowboys rolls at home.
Oklahoma State 51 Baylor 27

Navy +21.5 at Notre Dame
The Midshipmen stroll into South Bend on a five game losing streak. But four of those losses are by a combined eight points. If there a mentally resilient team Navy has to be one.

Navy has also won three of the last four in this series straight up. The caution point here is that Notre Dame blew out Air Force earlier in the season who runs a similar offense.

However, the Irish are coming off a soul crushing defeat to arch rival USC last week in which they were dominated on the ground by the Trojans.

Brian Kelly's team wins this one but closer than the public thinks.
Notre Dame 34 Navy 21

Updated: Evidently Brian Kelly is utilizing one of the worst team building strategies by pointing out who he recruited and who the previous staff recruited to the media and not so subtly placing blame on the guys he inherited. 

Clemson -3.5 at Georgia Tech
I almost couldn't believe my eyes when I saw this line. I know about the series history and how 12 of the last 16 have been decided by five points or less, but in three of those other four games Clemson blew out Georgia Tech by at least 14 points.

The Tigers have a decided talent advantage and look to be much better than their 2010 squad which beat the Yellow Jackets by 14 while Tech is playing much like they did last year of late.

Georgia Tech keeps this close for three quarters, but big plays by Clemson take this one in the end.
Clemson 34 Georgia Tech 28

Other games I like...

I really like Stanford -8 versus USC as I don't think the Trojans can stop a power running game, but the road setting worries me since Stanford has not faced much adversity.
Take Stanford ML

Wisconsin is another road team I like at -7.5, but Ohio State's defense is good enough to keep this one to close for comfort.
Take Wisconsin ML

South Carolina opened as a 7 point favorite at Tennessee but it has moved all the way to 3.5 by gameday. I get that the Gamecocks don't have Marcus Lattimore and that is a huge blow, but the Volunteers will be starting a true freshman at QB against a good South Carolina defense. Since I don't know how much Lattimore is really worth yet I am staying away from the spread here.
Take South Carolina ML

Georgia SHOULD beat Florida easily on Saturday. The Bulldogs are more talented than the Gators at just about every position. The line is only -3 here so taking UGA with the points is not a bad bet at all. I guess I have just seen the head games play too much with Georgia over the years to take any kind of points.
Take Georgia ML

Upset: Michigan State over Nebraska
The Spartans do have to go on the road for this one but they have good experience playing against a run first QB like Taylor Martinez.
Take Michigan State ML

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