Saturday, November 5, 2011

Saturday ATS and ML Plays; Tide Will Roll But Will They Cover?

Here are some plays I like for Saturday. Feel free to leave games you like in the comments.

Iowa +4 vs Michigan
The Hawkeyes are not having a great season, but catch the Wolverines at a good time. Iowa pass offense is a respectable unit and Michigan lost two more defensive backs this week who left the team. Probably their best DB Jordan Kovacs is not 100% coming into this game either.

Also, Michigan has been downright awful in Big 10 games ATS the last several years while Iowa has been good at home over the last 3 seasons.

Brady Hoke has done a good job changing the culture in Ann Arbor, but I just don't trust this young team going on the road against a tough opponent with its back against the wall.  Another reason to really like Iowa is that 15-20 mph winds will be blowing through which will cut down on Michigan's pass game.  The last time they faced a windy day on the road they lost 28-14 to Michigan State.

I wouldn't be surprised at all for Iowa to win this one outright.

Texas Tech +14 at Texas
The Red Raiders are coming off a horrible showing against Iowa State last week after beating Oklahoma the previous week. This is typical Tommy Tuberville football.

Texas is the big name opponent Tuberville thrives on. The Red Raiders have also played better on the road than at home this season.

I think the Longhorns are getting more value than they should for dominating an awful Kansas team a week ago.

Houston -27.5 at UAB
The Cougars are a covering machine this year. Judging by their recent crowds this will not be much of a road threat to Houston.

Also, this week discussions began about whether UAB will be able to continue their football program after a new stadium was turned down. I wonder where the players heads are after hearing this news.

Stanford -21.5 at Oregon State
This is another big line for the Cardinal to cover. You always worry about teams going off long games, but USC does not seem to be affected Friday night at Colorado.

This is the worst Oregon State Mike Riley has ever had.

Alabama ML at LSU
Game of the Century. Football Armageddon. Whatever you want to call it. LSU has the more impressive wins, but Nick Saban's 13-1 SEC record in rematch games lends me to think he will find a way to win this one. Also, the Tide has lost just one home game in the last three seasons.

I worry that Alabama will get up and Saban may play close to the vest and not want to put A.J. McCarron in risky situations to extend the lead. Both of these teams are so good it is hard for me to put a number on a final score, but I think somehow Alabama finds a way to win.

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