Friday, December 2, 2011

Georgia - LSU Statistical Score Estimate

SEC Championship Game Atlanta, GA
Line: LSU -13.5
O/U: 46

Note: This analysis is based on the stats for the entire season. I use yards per point more so than yards per play when looking at season stats because I feel teams that turn the ball over or create turnovers can do so consistently.  Yards per play takes turnovers and field position much more into account than yards per play.

Team....Total Yards.....Points
LSU.........330...............29
UGA........336...............16

LSU has a very good yards per point (YPP) on offense of 10.2. This low of a number says that the Tigers score a lot of touchdowns as opposed to field goals and they get short fields to operate on because of pinning offenses deep in their own territory and creating turnovers.

UGA also has a good yards per point of 12.5, but it is not as good as LSU's.

Defensively, again the Tigers' are one of the best with a 23.4 yards per point. Opposing offenses have to drive long fields and get a lot of field goals in relation to touchdowns. Also, drives sometimes end in turnovers or no points.

Georgia, again, has a good defensive YPP of 15.2 but, again, not as good as LSU. The Bulldogs have improved as the season has gone on with a 21.1 yards per point in their last three games which includes New Mexico State, Auburn, and Georgia Tech.

I think the public has this one pegged correctly at a 13.5 point spread and I think they are pretty close at a 46 total.

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