Friday, December 2, 2011

Virginia Tech - Clemson Statistical Score Estimate

ACC Championship Game Charlotte, NC
Line: Va Tech -7
Total: 53.5

Note: This analysis is based on the stats for the entire season. I use yards per point (YPP) more so than yards per play when looking at season stats because I feel teams that turn the ball over or create turnovers can do so consistently.  Yards per play takes turnovers and field position much more into account than yards per play.

Team.....Total Yards....Points
VaTech.....403..............30
Clem.........371..............20

These two offenses are very similar in their efficiency with the Tigers actually the better of the two on the season with a 13.3 YPP to the Hokies 14.0.

Where the real difference lies is on defense. Virginia Tech again has one of the nation's best defenses at keeping opponents off the scoreboard. Bud Fosters' unit has a 19.5 YPP giving them a big advantage over Kevin Steele's who gives up 13.9 YPP.

This line opened around 5.5 and quickly moved to 7 with bettors most likely seeing how much improvement the Hokies have made since the first meeting and how much better their defense is overall.

The total of 53.5 looks pretty good to me. While I project a total of 50 I feel more confident in a VT cover than an Under.

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