Saturday, October 27, 2012

College Football ATS: October 27 - Can South Carolina Bounce Back?

Another good week going 3-1-1 last Saturday and now 10-4-1 the last three weeks.

I will admit I have less confidence in the picks below than in some weeks past, but here goes it:

South Carolina -13.5 vs Tennessee

The Gamecocks are likely butthurt after very likely losing out on the SEC East for a second straight season and smarting after a thrashing at the hands of the Gators.  This is an easy let down spot for Steve Spurrier's club which makes me fearful of a two TD line.

But South Carolina is at least even or better at every position on the field than the Volunteers who can't exactly be that up for this game knowing their coach is going to get fired at the end of the season (if they are fighting for him why haven't they shown better efforts leading up to here?)

Indiana + 2 at Illinois

Last week, I picked the Under for the Hoosiers game against Navy and ended up pushing.  While Indiana has played an easier schedule, nothing in the stats shows me the Illini are better than them.  Home field advantage?  Pretty much non existent as Illinois fans have mostly lost hope for this season.

UNC -7.5 vs NC State 

The Tar Heels have been a different team at home this season with all three losses coming on the road.  While NC State has won five straight in this series, I think their streak stops here.  The Wolfpack are pulling out games this season by close margins, including beating Maryland last week when the Terps missed a 30 yard FG from the center of the field

Oregon -28 (FIRST HALF) vs Colorado

My first halftime bet of the year. Normally I don't these types of bets but this makes sense for several reasons: 1) Oregon has USC next weekend and will likely want to rest players in 2nd half 2) The Ducks have shown outbursts in the first half while mostly shutting it down after halftime.  This is before having a big game like Chip Kelly does next week. 3) Colorado sucks

Kansas State -7.5 vs Texas Tech

This is the pick I most nervous about.  I rode the Wildcats to an upset win last week at West Virginia, but I wonder if bettors are putting too much stock in K-State right now.  I thought the Red Raiders blowout win vs WVU was more a fluke but it is turning out not to be.  But every stat tells me Bill Snyder's team has this game by a TD or more and the stats have been good to me thus far this year.

Other games to keep an eye on:
Florida -7 vs UGA
Penn State PICK vs Ohio State
FSU -27 vs Duke
Oregon State -3 at Washington
Ole Miss +6 at Arkansas

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