Saturday, October 20, 2012

October 20 College Football ATS Picks: Alabama Rolls

7-3 the last two weeks hoping to continue the positive trend again this week. 

Louisville -5.5 vs South Florida

The Cardinals opened as nine point favorites but the line has moved in the Bulls favor since. I don't see anything on the injury indicating why U of L would be perceived lower.  The line has moved in the last 24 hours and since neither of these are "public" teams I have to assume this is money from the sharps.

Based on this deduction, I am going out on a limb here with this pick.

Kansas State +3 at West Virginia

The Mountaineers offense finally let them down last week while the defense played like they have all season.  When I saw that WVU was favored by just over a field goal to a team that had just gotten blown out by Oklahoma I knew something was up.  It was. 

The Wildcats will not be intimidated going into Morgantown after already winning in Norman earlier this year. 

Alabama +20 at Tennessee

The Tide have been seeing some ridiculous lines and shutting it down early in the second half producing losses ATS.  But this is a rivalry game and style points matter now with the first BCS standings out.

The Vols offense has looked good this season and the crowd will be frenzied early on, but they are no match for the Tide over four quarters.

Oregon State -9.5 vs Utah

Lose your starting QB and play a backup who has never seen a meaningful snap at the college level?  No problem for the Beavers last week at BYU.

Mike Riley is one of the underrated coaches in America and likes Corvallis so much he turned down the Alabama job in the early 2000s.  Each one of my metrics tells me Oregon State can cover the 9.5.

Navy at Indiana Under 61

My first total play of the year.  I think the Hoosiers are getting a boost here after their offensive explosion last week against Ohio State. Barring defensive scores I see this game being played in the low 50s.

While the Middies offense can be explosive, they are still more likely to grind out drives against the Hoosiers and eat clock which should keep the total low.

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