Friday, November 2, 2012

November 3 ATS Picks: NC State vs Virginia, Tulsa vs Arkansas and More

Coming off ANOTHER winning week at 4-1 and now 14-5-1 the last four weeks here are my ATS picks for this week.

Cincinnati -4.5 vs Syracuse 12 ET

The Bearcats were caught looking ahead to Louisville two weeks ago when they lost to Toledo.  Last week against the Cardinals they nearly beat them at Papa Johns Stadium before falling by three in OT.

Butch Jones is a good coach who could be in line for a B1G job after this season (Purdue?).  The Bearcats are undefeated at home this season in what is turning into a nice home field advantage at Nippert Stadium.

Tulsa +9.5 at Arkansas 12:20 ET

The Golden Hurricane are coming off a bye week and facing a Razorbacks team who lost to Ole Miss last week.   Their QB Cody Green missed their last game against Rice but is expected to play this week.

This line started as -7.5 and has moved to -9.  Just the way I like it.  Vegas has grown from a little town in the desert to a worldwide destination (you would not believe how many foreigners LOVE Vegas!) for a reason. 

Still this game is BY FAR the one I am most worried about tomorrow because the Razorbacks have been playing better lately and their tougher schedule makes it difficult to compare the two teams stats.

But Sagarin likes it too, so I will got out on a small limb here and say Arkansas wins but doesn't cover 9.5.

NC State -10.5 vs Virginia 12:30 ET

Virginia is an AWFUL football team.  They have lost six games in a row after starting 0-2 including a 36 points loss at Georgia Tech, a 25 point loss at Duke, and a home loss to Louisiana Tech. 

The only thing I worry about in this game is how the Wolfpack will respond to the gut wrenching (but ATS winning for me) loss to hated rival UNC last week.  State had won five in a row and looked to nearly have six until a terrible fourth quarter. 

Virginia's offense is terrible this season needing 19 yards for every point, one of the worst in FBS.
Tom O'Brien is about as even keeled as they come and I don't he lets his team mope too much.

Ohio State -27.5 vs Illinois 3:30 ET

Big spread for the Buckeyes to cover especially when their defense has been suspect this year, but I think Urban Meyer's club got over a big hump last week with a relatively dominating performance at Penn State.

Illinois is bad.  Getting blown out by Indiana IN FOOTBALL bad.

Each one of my metrics has the Buckeyes covering and their offense should explode against a bad Illini defense put in bad spots by their anemic offense.

Penn State +3.5 at Purdue 3:30 ET

Bettors are telling you these two teams are essentially a draw on a neutral field.  Are we putting too much stock in the Boilermakers closes losses to Notre Dame and Ohio State while overlooking the blowout losses to lesser teams like Michigan and Minnesota?

The only way I see Penn State winning by less than a TD is if they are starting to run out of gas with a depleted roster deflated after a loss to Ohio State last week. 

The Nittany Lions defense is by far the best unit on the field and they carry the day for Bill O'Brien.

Other games I will check out this weekend:
These are games where I see a decided advantage but for one reason or another just don't feel confident enough to make an ATS selection.  If you REALLY like one of these sides then have at it.

Troy +18.5 at Tennessee
The schedule disparity makes it too difficult to call for the ATS win by the Trojans.

New Mexico State +22.5 at Auburn
Will the Tigers' psyche allow them to beat any FBS team by this much?

Ole Miss +14 at Georgia
The Bulldogs have played to their competition this season and cannot match last week's intensity in a win over Florida.

Kansas State -9.5 vs Oklahoma State
The Wildcats have been good to me this year taking them the last two weeks.  I wonder when their bubble will pop?

Pitt +16.5 at Notre Dame
The Panthers have quietly been playing much better after a disastrous start and we can see how much Wisconsin misses Paul Chryst.  But this assault charge on their best player Ray Graham worries me too much.

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