Monday, December 3, 2012

UGA vs Georgia Tech Basketball Preview

Source: Savannah Now
The Georgia Bulldogs and Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets renew their basketball rivalry this Tuesday in Atlanta.  While the hard court rivalry is not as fierce as the gridiron one it is always the most anticipated non-conference game of the year for each school and does have some bragging rights.

Last season, Tech won in Athens for the first time since 1976. In his first season as head coach, Brian Gregory gained a needed boost over his in state rival and curried him some much needed favor in a rough season.   Overall, the Yellow Jackets lead the series 101-86.

The biggest news coming into the game this week is a potential injury to starting Georgia Tech point guard Mfon Udofia.  The senior went down with an ankle injury on Wednesday night against Illinois and is listed day to day.

His presence is huge for a young, but talented Tech squad.  Udofia is averaging the most minutes per game of any player on the Jackets roster at over 30mpg and the dropoff to his backup Pierre Jordan is significant.  

Season Breakdown

Source: Statsheet.com


Source: Statsheet.com.

























Recruiting Comparison

Georgia Tech Avg Stars: 3.44
Georgia Avg Stars: 2.76

Position by Position Recruiting Breakdown:

GT Stars
UGA Stars
PG Mfon Udofia 4
Vincent Williams 2.5
SG Brandon Reed 2.5
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 4.7
SF Marcus Georges-Hunt 4
Marcus Thornton 3.3
PF Robert Carter 4
Nemanja Djurisic 2.7
C Daniel Miller 3
Donte Williams 2.3
AVERAGE 3.5

3.1





Key Reserves



F Kammeon Holsey 4
Sherrard Brantley 2
G Chris Bolden 3
Charles Mann 3
F Jason Morris 4
John Florveus 2.3
AVERAGE 3.7

2.4

The Yellow Jackets possess the higher recruited starting lineup and have a significant recruited talent advantage coming off the bench. 

But not all 4 star recruits are created the same.  It is logical to think a 4 star in their third or fourth year would be be better than a 4 star in their first or second year.  This talent + experience model is what allows programs like Butler or VCU to compete on the highest level as their key contributors are typically upperclassmen and rarely true freshman. 

Now with "Experience Points"

GT Stars Pts
UGA Stars Pts
PG Mfon Udofia 4 16
Vincent Williams 2.5 10
SG Brandon Reed 2.5 7.5
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 4.7 9.4
SF Marcus Georges-Hunt 4 4
Marcus Thornton 3.3 9.9
PF Robert Carter 4 4
Nemanja Djurisic 2.7 5.4
C Daniel Miller 3 9
Donte Williams 2.3 6.9

3.5 40.5

3.1 41.6







Key Reserves





F Kammeon Holsey 4 12
Sherrard Brantley 2 8
G Chris Bolden 3 3
Charles Mann 3 3
F Jason Morris 4 12
John Florveus 2.3 9.2

3.7 27.0

2.4 20.2

Here I have attempted to assign what I am calling "Experience Points".  For each year the player has played at the collegiate level (including the current) they get a point.  For example, Mfon Udofia is in his fourth year and since he was a consensus four star recruit he has 16 "Experience Points".

Based on this model, UGA actually outpaces Georgia Tech in the starting lineup.  However, the Yellow Jackets again have a significant advantage off the bench.

Again all of this, the recruited talent, the "Experience Points" are a moot point if Mfon Udofia is not close to 100% for Georgia Tech. He is that important to the Yellow Jackets.

Assuming Udofia is able to go, I see this game being tight for the first 30 minutes, but Georgia Tech pulling away late as their depth will overwhelm Georgia.

If Udofia is not 100% then this could be a big win for a struggling Bulldogs squad at 2-5 and give Mark Fox so much needed momentum. 

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