Wednesday, November 6, 2013

Georgia Tech Football by the Numbers: The Best and Worst Games in 2013 (So Far)

The Yellow Jackets are 75% through their 2013 season so I figured I better post something before the season ends.

Below is a game by game analysis of Tech's Offense and Defense using my favorite efficiency statistic: Yards Per Point (Y/Pt).  Y/Pt has its positives and negatives as does the popular Yards/Play.  To me the scoreboard at the end of the game is what matters most so that is why I prefer Y/Pt, but like any statistic it is not perfect.

You may notice the Elon game is not included.  I don't think stats versus non-FBS are very valuable so they are not included in any of my calculations - GT or opponent.



The far right of the Offense chart is an attempt to measure team performance (Offense and Defense).

Observations:
  1. GT's best game by a large margin was the 56-0 win vs Syracuse.  I substituted a value of 100 for Y/Pt because the Orange were shutout.  This is the equivalent of a team having 1000 yards and 10 points - basically impossible.
  2. The second best performance of the season vs Duke ranks as the second best game of the season.  This give credence to the saying "you make the most improvement from the first game to the second".  The Blue Devils win also followed a bye.  Also, Duke has gotten better as the season has gone on making this win look better and better.
  3. The most recent win over Pitt was the third best game but this is entirely driven by the defense - who would have thought that at the beginning of the season?  The Jackets yielded 22.8 Y/Pt (the higher the value the better on defense) to the Panthers, 66% better than the Pitt offense season average.  Paul Johnson's offense actually performed pretty poorly last week when you compare to Pitt's opponents.  This was Pitt's second straight game against the spread option and that is a much bigger advantage for them than GT having tape on how they defend.
  4. The Virginia win truly was a win that GT would have not won in the past three seasons as Johnson stated in the post game presser.  The offense looks good initially on paper but when you compare to what opponents are doing vs UVA it actually wasn't. Five turnovers certainly don't help.  The defense made some key plays but was also worse than the UVA offensive averages.
  5. Johnson said he would like most to have the Virginia Tech game to play again.  These stats show why it was by far the worst game of the year for Ga. Tech. The offense performed about half as well as other Hokie opponents.  The Defense was just slightly worse the season average. Bud Foster truly does have Johnson's number.

(So is this blog back?  Tough to say.  Work is very busy right now and doesn't look to be slowing down anytime soon and a major life event is coming in February, but I was able to finally find some time and more importantly motivation to look into these stats)

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